Bank Bradesco Plummets 5.95% Amid Trump’s Debanking Ban: Is This the New Normal?

Summary
• Bank Bradesco (BBDO) slumps 5.95% intraday to $2.53, its lowest since 2023
• Intraday range narrows to $2.5213–$2.5696 amid Trump’s executive order on debanking
• RSI hits overbought 71.43, MACD signals bullish momentum despite sharp decline

Bank Bradesco’s 5.95% intraday freefall has sent shockwaves through global markets, with the stock trading near its 52-week low of $1.71. The selloff coincides with President Trump’s executive order banning politicized debanking, a policy shift that has rattled the banking sector. As technical indicators flash conflicting signals and sector peers react, investors are left scrambling to decode the catalysts behind this volatility.

Trump’s Debanking Ban Sparks Sector-Wide Jitters
President Trump’s executive order prohibiting banks from using 'reputational risk' to deny services based on political beliefs has upended years of regulatory ambiguity. Bank executives have confirmed that such practices were weaponized under prior administrations, with Trump himself alleging victimization. The order’s immediate impact is a recalibration of risk models across the sector, as institutions now face stricter constraints on account closures. For Bradesco, a Brazilian bank with cross-border regulatory exposure, the uncertainty around U.S. policy spillovers has triggered defensive selling.

Banks Sector Volatility Intensifies as JPMorgan Trails Decline
While Bank Bradesco’s 5.04% drop dwarfs the sector’s average move, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also fell 0.547% intraday, reflecting broader unease. The order’s implications for U.S. banks’ liability in politically motivated account closures have created a risk-off environment. However, Bradesco’s exposure to international regulatory frameworks—particularly in markets where U.S. policy influence is pronounced—amplifies its vulnerability. The divergence in magnitude underscores the stock’s unique sensitivity to cross-border regulatory shifts.

Navigating the Volatility: Technicals and Tactical ETFs
• RSI: 71.43 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.0253 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.0074
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $2.545 (near lower band $2.3695)
• 200D MA: $2.1822 (far below current price)

Bank Bradesco’s technical profile reveals a critical inflection point. The RSI’s overbought reading (71.43) suggests exhaustion in the short-term rally, while the MACD’s positive histogram (0.0178) indicates lingering bullish momentum. However, the stock’s proximity to the lower Bollinger Band ($2.3695) signals potential support. Traders should monitor the $2.44–$2.45 support cluster (30D support) and the $2.18–$2.20 200D MA zone as critical thresholds. With no options data available, leveraged ETFs remain off-limits, but cash-secured short-term puts could be considered for downside protection if liquidity improves.

Backtest Bank Bradesco Stock Performance
The iShares Barclays Global Aggregate Bond ETF (BBDO) has historically shown resilience following a -6% intraday plunge. The 3-day win rate is 51.11%, the 10-day win rate is 49.68%, and the 30-day win rate is 48.58%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.68%, suggesting that BBDO can recover from significant dips.

Regulatory Crossroads: What to Watch Before the Next Move
The sustainability of Bank Bradesco’s decline hinges on the pace of regulatory clarity post-Trump’s executive order. A breakdown below the $2.44 support level could trigger a test of the 200D MA at $2.18, while a rebound above $2.57 (intraday high) may rekindle short-term bullish momentum. Investors should closely track JPMorgan Chase’s (-0.547% intraday) performance as a sector barometer. With the 52W low at $1.71 still distant, the immediate focus remains on key technical levels and the evolving regulatory landscape. Action: Monitor $2.44 support and $2.57 resistance—breakouts could signal the next directional move.