Band/Tether (BANDUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-11

• Price dropped from 0.665 to 0.496, forming bearish momentum with a 25% decline.
• Volume surged during the sharp sell-off, with over 687k units traded at 0.39.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened post-0.53 high, indicating increased uncertainty.
• A key support area appears at 0.47–0.49, with mixed candlestick signals including doji and hammers.

Band/Tether (BANDUSDT) opened at 0.659 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.496 the following day at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.665 and a low of 0.327 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was 12.5M units, and notional turnover was ~$6.25M, indicating high activity during the sharp decline.

Over the last 24 hours, the structure of BANDUSDT revealed a strong bearish trend with several notable price formations. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.66–0.65, followed by a doji at 0.64 and 0.635, signaling indecision after the initial drop. The price then broke through 0.50, a critical psychological level, with bearish continuation signals such as hanging man and inverted hammer at 0.504–0.496 indicating potential short-covering or reversal attempts. Key support levels were tested at 0.49, 0.47, and 0.46, with 0.49–0.47 appearing as the most critical near-term support cluster.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20SMA and 50SMA both trending downward, with the price consistently below both, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA all in bearish alignment, with the price well below the 200DMA. MACD turned negative in the early hours of the drop and remained bearish, with the histogram expanding as the sell-off accelerated. RSI has moved into oversold territory, reaching levels near 30, which might offer limited near-term buying interest, though it does not guarantee a reversal.

Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion during the sharp drop, with price briefly touching the lower band at 0.47–0.49, suggesting a period of heightened volatility and bearish continuation. The contraction in the morning hours preceded the breakdown, indicating a potential reversal in volatility expectations. Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off at 0.39, with over 687k units traded, while the subsequent rally saw relatively lower volume, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers.

Notable Fibonacci retracement levels include 61.8% at ~0.47, which was briefly tested and held, and 38.2% at ~0.52, which acted as resistance during the early rebound attempts. The price remains below the 61.8% level, indicating the bearish trend is still intact. On the daily chart, key Fibonacci levels from the recent high at 0.665 also suggest 0.327 as a potential deeper support target if the trend continues.

The market may see limited short-term buying interest near 0.49–0.47, but a sustained break below 0.46 could extend losses. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for confirmation of any potential bounce. Strong follow-through selling below 0.46 could signal further downside risk over the next 24 hours.

The price action suggests a continuation of the bearish bias, with a possible bounce near 0.49–0.47 acting as a short-term floor. However, a break below this range could open the door to 0.46 and beyond. Traders should closely watch for divergence between price and volume during any rally, as this may hint at exhaustion in the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below both and a bearish RSI divergence. A stop-loss is placed just above the recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the next key Fibonacci level below the entry price. Given the recent breakdown and confirmed bearish momentum, this strategy appears well-aligned with current conditions. However, a false breakout above 0.496 or a sustained rally in volume could invalidate the short signal, indicating a need for dynamic risk management.