Band/Tether (BANDUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-22

• Price dropped sharply overnight, forming multiple bearish patterns and testing key support levels
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum, with RSI nearing oversold territory
• Volatility expanded after 06:00 ET with a sharp price breakdown and elevated volume
• Turnover surged during the 06:15 ET candle, signaling a major short-term capitulation
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential bounce or further consolidation near 0.645–0.650

BANDUSDT opened at 0.734 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 0.738 and 0.629 before closing at 0.645 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1,479,506.4, and notional turnover reached $915,465.7 during the 24-hour period. A sharp sell-off emerged after 00:00 ET, with price breaking key support levels and forming bearish candlesticks such as hammers, gravestones, and engulfing patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price experienced a strong bearish shift after 06:15 ET, with a single candle dropping from 0.674 to 0.629 (6.5% decline). This candle resembles a long-legged doji, confirming bearish exhaustion. A potential support zone has formed around 0.645–0.648, where price has bounced twice in the final hours. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 0.738–0.629 move aligns closely with this level, suggesting possible consolidation or a short-term rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both trended downward, with the 50-period MA acting as a dynamic resistance. The 200-period MA, while lagging, has not yet confirmed a long-term bearish trend. On a daily time frame, the 200-period MA remains above the current price, indicating that the broader trend is still neutral to slightly bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has formed multiple bearish divergences, particularly in the early morning, with price making lower highs and the MACD failing to confirm. RSI has trended lower, reaching oversold territory (below 30) near 0.642. This suggests potential short-term stabilization, though bearish momentum is still intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price has remained below the 20-period lower band since 06:30 ET, reinforcing bearish pressure. A potential bounce could occur if price retests the lower band in the next 24 hours, particularly if volume increases.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 06:15 ET with a turnover of $575,297.5, coinciding with the 0.629 low. This suggests a significant liquidation event. However, price has failed to follow through on this bearish signal, and volume has since decreased. This divergence may signal a potential near-term reversal if price stabilizes above 0.645.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level at 0.646 has been a key pivot point, with price bouncing off it twice in the last 4 hours. A break below this level could see further downside targeting 0.638 (38.2%) and ultimately 0.629 (0.0% of the 0.738–0.629 move). Traders may watch 0.646–0.650 as a potential short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish exhaustion and oversold RSI, a potential backtest strategy could be to look for a retest of the 0.645–0.650 support zone with confirmation via a bullish reversal candle (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) and increasing volume. A long entry at the close of the confirmation candle with a stop below the next 15-minute low (0.642) and a target at 0.655 (the 50% Fibonacci level) could be tested. This would align with the idea of using Fibonacci retracements and candlestick patterns to trade short-term countertrend bounces after a strong bearish move.

The next 24 hours will likely test whether 0.645–0.650 can hold as a base, with a potential for either consolidation or a follow-through move lower. Traders should remain cautious and watch for volume confirmation on any near-term bounce. Risk remains skewed to the downside if the key support is breached.