Banco Santander Surges 2.53% on Bullish Momentum and Strategic Buy Signals

Summary
• Banco Santander (SAN) trades at $9.31, up 2.53% intraday
• Intraday high hits $9.32, matching 52-week peak
• Deutsche Bank upgrades target price to €8.20 with 'Buy' rating
• Technical indicators signal short-term bullish momentum
• Options activity surges with 20 contracts traded

Banco Santander’s sharp intraday rally has captured market attention as the stock surges 2.53% to $9.31, nearing its 52-week high of $9.32. The move follows Deutsche Bank’s upgraded 'Buy' rating and a $8.20 price target, while technical indicators and options flow suggest strong near-term conviction. With volume at 4.65 million shares and a dynamic P/E of 8.62, the stock’s momentum aligns with broader sector optimism.

Deutsche Bank's Bullish Rating and Technical Strength Drive Santander's Rally
Banco Santander’s intraday surge is directly tied to Deutsche Bank analyst Alfredo Alonso’s upgraded 'Buy' rating and raised target price to €8.20 (from €7.50). This follows a broader trend of institutional confidence, including Santander’s recent 6.6% increase in JPMorgan Chase holdings. Technically, the stock’s 4-day winning streak, coupled with a MACD crossover and RSI at 65.1, signals strong short-term momentum. The 52-week high at $9.32 acts as a psychological barrier, with volume surging 3.13% of the float, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Options and ETF Strategy: Leveraging Santander’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $6.44 (well below current price)
• RSI: 65.1 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 0.142 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $8.21–$9.10 (current price near upper band)

Banco Santander’s technical profile suggests a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $8.48 and resistance at $9.32. The stock’s 3.13% turnover rate and 8.62 P/E ratio indicate strong liquidity and value appeal. For leveraged exposure, XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) offers sector alignment, though Santander’s standalone momentum may outperform.

Top Options Picks:
1. SAN20250919C9
• Call Option, Strike: $9, Expiry: 2025-09-19
• IV: 29.39%, Leverage: 16.92%, Delta: 0.65, Theta: -0.0059, Gamma: 0.391, Turnover: 11,147
• IV: Moderate, Leverage: High, Delta: Balanced, Theta: Strong decay, Gamma: High sensitivity
• This contract offers optimal leverage with moderate IV, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected price: $9.77). Payoff: $0.77 per share.
2. SAN20251219C9
• Call Option, Strike: $9, Expiry: 2025-12-19
• IV: 32.40%, Leverage: 10.34%, Delta: 0.61, Theta: -0.0030, Gamma: 0.207, Turnover: 12,017
• IV: Slightly elevated, Leverage: Moderate, Delta: Slightly lower, Theta: Moderate decay, Gamma: Moderate sensitivity
• This longer-dated option balances time decay with gamma exposure, suitable for a 5% upside (projected price: $9.77). Payoff: $0.77 per share.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize SAN20250919C9 for its high gamma and leverage, while SAN20251219C9 offers a safer, time-extended play. Both contracts align with Santander’s technical setup and Deutsche Bank’s upgraded thesis.

Backtest Banco Santander Stock Performance
The backtest of SAN's performance after a 3% intraday surge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 59.52%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.87%, and the 30-Day win rate is 61.45%, suggesting that SAN tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such an event. The maximum return observed was 7.98% over 30 days, which implies that there is potential for significant gains following a 3% intraday surge.

Act Now: Santander’s Bullish Case Gains Institutional and Technical Momentum
Banco Santander’s rally is underpinned by a confluence of institutional upgrades, technical strength, and favorable options flow. With Deutsche Bank’s €8.20 target and a 52-week high in sight, the stock’s 2.53% intraday surge suggests a continuation of its bullish trend. Key levels to watch include $8.48 (support) and $9.32 (resistance). For context, sector leader JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has also gained 0.57%, reinforcing banking sector optimism. Investors should prioritize SAN20250919C9 for aggressive upside potential or XLF for sector exposure. Watch for a break above $9.32 to confirm the next leg higher.