Banco Santander (SAN) Surges 3.20% to €9.67 as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Banco Santander (SAN) closed the most recent session with a 3.20% increase to €9.67, marking a notable upward move. This surge follows a period of consolidation and volatility, with the stock oscillating between key support levels near €8.29 and resistance levels above €9.82 over the past year. The technical landscape suggests a potential shift in momentum, warranting a detailed analysis of candlestick patterns, moving averages, and other indicators to assess the sustainability of this rally.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action reveals a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2025-08-28 session, with the candle’s body fully encapsulating the prior day’s bearish candle. This pattern, coupled with the price closing near the session’s high (€9.67), suggests strong buyer participation. Key support levels to monitor include €9.31 (2025-08-14 low) and €8.87 (2025-08-06 low), while resistance is currently at €9.67 and potentially €9.79 (2025-08-22 high). A break above €9.79 could trigger a retest of the prior all-time high near €9.82.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from the most recent 50 trading days) currently sits at approximately €9.25, while the 200-day average is €8.80. The price has crossed above both, indicating a bullish medium-term trend. However, the 100-day average (€9.05) remains a critical threshold: sustained trading above this level would confirm a shift in the dominant trend from consolidation to an uptrend. The confluence of the current price above the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA suggests a potential continuation of the upward bias, though a pullback to the 200-day MA could test its role as dynamic support.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive in recent sessions, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, signaling a bullish crossover. This aligns with the KDJ (Stochastic) indicator, which shows the %K line rising above the %D line, suggesting momentum is favoring buyers. However, the RSI (discussed below) and KDJ readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions, raising caution about a potential near-term correction. A divergence between price highs and oscillator peaks could signal a reversal risk.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded in recent weeks, reflecting increased volatility. The 20-day moving average is currently at €9.35, with the upper band at €9.70 and the lower band at €8.99. The price’s recent close near the upper band suggests heightened volatility and potential overbought conditions. A reversion toward the 20-day MA would be expected, though a sustained break above the upper band could extend the uptrend.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume on the 2025-08-28 session surged to 6.19 million shares, significantly higher than the 30-day average of ~3.5 million. This volume spike validates the bullish price action, indicating strong conviction among buyers. However, if volume declines in subsequent sessions while the price remains elevated, it could signal weakening momentum and a higher likelihood of a pullback.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has risen to 68, approaching overbought territory (70). While this suggests short-term exhaustion, it is not yet a definitive bearish signal. A move above 70 would trigger caution, particularly if volume declines or a bearish divergence appears between the RSI and price. Historically, the RSI has corrected from such levels, with pullbacks often finding support near the 50 threshold.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high (€9.82 on 2025-08-22) to the swing low (€8.29 on 2025-08-01) include 23.6% (€9.42), 38.2% (€9.14), and 61.8% (€8.73). The current price of €9.67 is approaching the 76.4% retracement level (€9.79), suggesting a potential area of resistance. A break above this level could target the 100% extension (€10.10), but a failure to hold above €9.42 would likely see a retest of the 38.2% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the confluence of bullish signals identified here. For instance, a long entry could be triggered when the price closes above the 50-day MA, the MACD crosses above the signal line, and the RSI remains below 70. Stop-loss placement could be set at the 20-day Bollinger Band (€8.99), while take-profit targets align with Fibonacci retracement levels. Historical data from 2025-08-15 to 2025-08-28 shows that such a strategy would have captured the recent 3.20% move, though it would require validation across multiple cycles to assess robustness.