Banana For Scale/USDC Market Overview

• Banana For Scale/USDC opened at $0.003423 and closed at $0.003227, with a 24-hour high of $0.003476 and low of $0.003140.
• The price action shows bearish momentum, with a 6.89% decline and a breakdown below key 15-minute support levels.
• Notional turnover reached $4.87M, driven by strong volume spikes in the early morning hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory, and MACD crossed below the signal line, signaling bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening in the 15-minute timeframe.

The 24-hour candlestick data for Banana For Scale/USDC (BANANAS31USDC) shows a bearish bias as the price closed at $0.003227 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, down from its opening at $0.003423. The high and low were $0.003476 and $0.003140, respectively, marking a significant swing move. Total volume reached 119,310,498.0 units, with notional turnover amounting to ~$4.87M, reflecting increased selling pressure, particularly after 20:00 ET on 2025-10-21. The breakdown below key support levels on the 15-minute chart and the negative momentum in RSI and MACD suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels include $0.003195 (tested multiple times) and $0.003170, while resistance is now redefined at $0.003250 and $0.003300 after the recent pullback. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearish, with prices below both. Candlestick patterns of note include several long lower shadows, suggesting rejection at these support levels, and bearish engulfing patterns forming after mid-22:00 ET. A long upper shadow at $0.003303 indicates rejection at early resistance.

Volatility has expanded sharply, with Bollinger Bands widening in the 15-minute timeframe. The 20-period bands stretched out as the price moved lower, indicating increased uncertainty. Prices now trade within the lower band, signaling a possible continuation of the trend, though a break above the midline could indicate a short-term bounce. RSI has entered the oversold territory (~25), suggesting possible near-term bounce, but a failure to hold above $0.003195 could see further downside.

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line in bearish territory, with a negative histogram suggesting momentum remains in favor of the bears. The bearish crossover occurred around 21:30 ET, and the divergence between price and MACD implies further downside is likely. Fibonacci retracements on the major 15-minute swing (from $0.003476 to $0.003140) show 38.2% at $0.003296 and 61.8% at $0.003200—currently a key support level. A break below $0.003170 could target the 78.6% retracement at $0.003154.

Looking forward, BANANAS31USDC may continue to test key support levels in the next 24 hours, especially given the bearish momentum and the strong selling pressure seen in the overnight session. A break below $0.003170 could trigger further downside to $0.003140 or even $0.003100. However, a rebound above $0.003230 may see a short-term bounce, especially if RSI recovers toward neutral territory. Investors should monitor volume and turnover to detect any divergence that might signal a reversal in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the historical performance of candlestick-based signals for BANANAS31USDC, we can define the “next resistance” as the first daily close exceeding the highest high of the preceding 20 days (option a). This approach aligns with common technical analysis frameworks and provides a robust, data-driven entry threshold. For the trading frequency, we will use daily bars (D1) for the backtest, given the focus is on broader price action trends rather than intraday noise.

Using this definition, we can identify candlestick pattern dates where a pattern (e.g., bullish reversal at a support level or bearish top at a resistance) is confirmed, then calculate the returns from entering on the following bar and exiting at the next defined resistance. The backtest would run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22, providing a comprehensive view of how such a strategy would have performed in both bullish and bearish regimes.