Bakkavor Group PLC's Recent Trading Activity and Implications for the Ongoing Takeover Scenario

The recent trading activity of Bakkavor Group PLC, as revealed through Exempt Principal Trader (EPT) disclosures, offers a nuanced lens through which to assess market sentiment and the trajectory of Greencore Group PLC's recommended takeover bid. With the proposed acquisition valued at 200 pence per Bakkavor share-a 32.5% premium to its undisturbed closing price-the interplay between institutional trading patterns and strategic corporate actions provides critical insights into investor confidence and deal viability.

EPT Disclosures: A Mixed Signal from Institutional Investors

In December 2025, several EPT disclosures highlighted active trading by key market participants. On 10 December, Peel Hunt LLP reported purchasing 2,084 ordinary shares at 230.67 GBx while selling 31 shares at 230.63 GBx. This suggests a net accumulation of shares at a slightly higher price point, potentially signaling confidence in Bakkavor's near-term prospects. Earlier, on 3 December, Peel Hunt had bought 1,852 shares at 230.09 GBx but sold 3,948 shares at prices ranging from 231.25 GBx to 234.00 GBx. The broader range of selling prices here indicates a more cautious stance, possibly reflecting profit-taking amid heightened volatility around the takeover announcement.

Meanwhile, Goodbody Stockbrokers UC disclosed on 3 December that it had purchased 2,556 shares at 2.305 GBx and sold 2,555 shares at prices between 2.31 and 2.3175 GBx. The near-parity in buy and sell volumes, coupled with the slight premium in sales, suggests a balanced approach, with no strong directional bias. Collectively, these trades underscore a market in flux, where institutional investors are hedging their positions while remaining broadly supportive of the takeover's implied value.

The Takeover Bid: Strategic Rationale and Regulatory Hurdles

Greencore's proposed acquisition of Bakkavor is framed as a strategic consolidation of the UK convenience food sector, creating a combined entity with £4 billion in annual revenue and a workforce of 30,500 employees. The offer of 0.604 new Greencore shares and 85 pence in cash per Bakkavor share is underpinned by Greencore's robust financial performance, including a pretax profit of £79.5 million and revenue of £1.95 billion in the past year. However, regulatory scrutiny necessitated the divestiture of Greencore's Bristol chilled soups and sauces site to Compleat Food Group, a move that addresses CMA concerns and is expected to facilitate the deal's completion by early 2026. The Bristol site, which generated £47 million in revenue (1% of the combined group's total), is a relatively minor asset, minimizing the impact on operational synergies.

Market Sentiment and Deal Implications

The EPT disclosures, while not definitive, align with a broader narrative of cautious optimism. The net accumulation of shares by Peel Hunt on 10 December, coupled with Greencore's proactive regulatory compliance, suggests that market participants view the takeover as increasingly likely. However, the mixed trading patterns also highlight lingering uncertainties, such as potential integration challenges or macroeconomic headwinds in the food sector. That said, the premium offered by Greencore-combined with its strong balance sheet-provides a compelling floor for Bakkavor's share price, even in a volatile environment.

Outlook: A Path to Synergy or Risk?

If the takeover proceeds as planned, the combined entity is positioned to capitalize on operational efficiencies, including supply chain optimization and expanded distribution networks. For Bakkavor shareholders, the cash component of the offer provides immediate liquidity, while the share component aligns long-term interests with Greencore's growth trajectory. However, investors should remain vigilant about execution risks, such as cultural integration hurdles or unanticipated costs from the Bristol site divestiture.

In conclusion, the EPT disclosures and corporate developments paint a picture of a market that is largely aligned with the takeover's strategic logic but remains circumspect about its execution. For now, the path to a completed deal appears clear, but the ultimate value realization will depend on Greencore's ability to deliver on its synergy promises.