Baird Upgrades nCino to Outperform, Sees 29% Upside Potential

Baird has upgraded nCino (NCNO) to Outperform with a $38 price target, implying a 29% potential upside. The analyst cites improved macro conditions, new product traction, and go-to-market execution as reasons for the upgrade. nCino has had a tough year, down 12% year-to-date, but Baird sees the company in the early stages of regaining investor confidence.

Baird Financial has upgraded nCino Inc. (NASDAQ: NCNO) to an Outperform rating, raising its price target to $38.00 from $30.00. This upgrade implies a potential upside of 29% for the stock, currently trading at $28.82 [1]. The analyst firm cited improving macroeconomic conditions, new product traction, and go-to-market execution as key reasons for the upgrade.

Baird noted that the current setup for nCino shares many parallels with its historically successful stock calls. The firm believes that the combination of mechanical growth accelerants, go-to-market catalysts, and momentum in new products, coupled with lower market expectations, presents "the best estimate upside argument in years" for nCino [1]. Baird increased its estimates for the company but did not quite align with nCino’s communicated goals.

The analyst firm also pointed out that if nCino achieves its full potential, including its "Rule of 40+" objective, the stock could see significant re-rating with a potential upside case approaching $50 per share [1]. Baird noted that now presents an opportune time to buy into nCino, given that the company has reached an important crux in its thesis [2].

nCino has had a challenging year, with the stock down 12% year-to-date. However, Baird sees the company in the early stages of regaining investor confidence. Other analysts have also been active in evaluating nCino, with Citizens JMP raising its price target to $35, JPMorgan initiating coverage with a neutral rating, and Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating [1].

KeyBanc Capital Markets continues to hold a Sector Weight rating on nCino, emphasizing the need for more evidence of strategic growth initiatives before considering a rating change. They expressed improved confidence in the company’s AI strategy and operating margins after recent meetings with executives [1]. Despite mixed reactions to nCino’s new pricing model at the Digital Banking 2025 conference, KeyBanc maintains a neutral stance on the company.

Overall, these developments reflect a period of strategic adjustments and analyst evaluations for nCino. As the company continues to navigate its growth trajectory, investors will be closely watching its progress and the impact of these strategic initiatives.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/baird-upgrades-ncino-stock-rating-to-outperform-raises-price-target-to-38-93CH-4132975
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/14/baird-upgrades-this-fintech-stock-calls-for-more-than-30percent-upside.html