Baidu Stock Jumps 7.81% To $123.79 Amid Four-Day 15.05% Rally

Baidu (BIDU) surged 7.81% on September 16, 2025, closing at $123.79, marking its fourth consecutive daily gain and achieving a 15.05% rally over this period. This analysis employs multiple technical frameworks to contextualize this move within the broader trend.
Candlestick Theory
The recent four-day rally features three consecutive white candles with increasing real bodies, culminating in a long white candle on September 16 that closed near its high of $124.79. This pattern signals robust bullish momentum. Key support now emerges at $111.82 (September 11 swing low and 38.2% Fibonacci level), while resistance resides near the $125 psychological barrier, which previously capped prices in March 2025. The $116.86 low from the latest session also establishes immediate support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($101.34) has crossed bullishly above the 100-day SMA ($96.21) and 200-day SMA ($91.87), confirming a major uptrend. Current price trades 22% above the 200-day SMA, indicating strong long-term momentum. Shorter-term averages show consistent bullish alignment, with the price maintaining closes above the 50-day SMA since September 5. Golden crosses in late February and June 2025 preceded sustained upward trends, reinforcing the current configuration's reliability.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a rising histogram since September 8, with the signal line maintaining its position below the MACD line – confirming bullish momentum acceleration. KDJ readings (current K: 89, D: 85, J: 97) show all lines in overbought territory (>80). While this suggests near-term exhaustion risk, sustained J-line readings above 90 during September's rally underscore powerful upside momentum. The simultaneous overbought signals from both oscillators may imply consolidation ahead but lack reversal divergence.
Bollinger Bands
Price consistently tests the upper Bollinger Band ($122.40), indicating strong bullish pressure. The 20-day band width expanded 25% since September 5 – a volatility surge confirming directional conviction. The absence of price contraction below the lower band throughout August-September underscores persistent demand. Traders should monitor whether the price can sustain above the $122-$125 resistance confluence.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rally validated itself through rising volume, peaking at 11.8 million shares on September 16 – the highest since the July 16 selloff. Volume exceeded the 20-day average by 85% during the four-day surge, confirming institutional participation. Notably, August's advance from $90 to $110 featured muted volume, making the current high-volume breakout technically more significant. Downswings throughout the period typically occurred on below-average volume, supporting the uptrend's sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (74) resides in overbought territory, historically preceding short-term pullbacks (e.g., reversals from RSI>75 in May and July 2025). However, strong trends can maintain elevated RSI readings for extended periods, as evidenced during February-April 2025 when RSI held above 70 for three weeks. Traders should note bearish divergences remain absent, with price and RSI peaks aligning throughout September.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the $68 low (October 2024) and $125 high (March 2025) as anchor points, key Fibonacci levels emerge: The 38.2% retracement at $103.40 provided support during May-June 2025 pullbacks. Recent consolidation around the 23.6% level ($112.80) in late August established a springboard for the current advance. The 0% projection at $125 now becomes critical resistance – a decisive close above this level could catalyze further upside toward the $138.50 extension.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Significant confluence exists at the $120-$125 zone, combining Fibonacci resistance, upper Bollinger Band, and VWAP-based resistance. The breakout succeeded despite RSI warning signals – an example of divergence failure in strong trends. However, KDJ's overbought extreme coinciding with RSI>70 suggests heightened susceptibility to profit-taking near $125. Critical support converges at $116.50 (August high + swing low) and $111.80 (Fibonacci 23.6% + volume shelf). Overall technical posture remains bullish, though tactical pullbacks appear increasingly probable after the vertical ascent.

Candlestick Theory
Baidu's price action reveals a strong bullish structure, characterized by the recent four-day rally culminating in a decisive long white candle on September 16 that closed near the session high of $124.79. This pattern signals robust buying pressure. Key support now resides at $111.82, corresponding to the September 11 swing low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Resistance is evident near $125, which aligns with the March 2025 peak and represents a psychological barrier. The lack of significant upper wicks during the rally suggests minimal selling pressure at higher levels.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration underscores a bullish trend reversal. The 50-day SMA ($101.34) recently crossed above both the 100-day SMA ($96.21) and 200-day SMA ($91.87), confirming a major golden cross – historically a reliable bullish signal for Baidu. Current price action trades 22% above the 200-day SMA, reflecting strong long-term momentum. The consistent positioning above all key moving averages since late August indicates sustained upward pressure, with the 50-day SMA providing dynamic support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows sustained bullish momentum, with the histogram expanding above the signal line since September 8. Concurrently, KDJ readings (K:89, D:85, J:97) reside in extreme overbought territory, historically preceding short-term consolidation. While both oscillators agree on strong upward momentum, KDJ's J-line above 95 warrants caution for near-term exhaustion. No bearish divergence is present, as price highs correspond with indicator peaks.
Bollinger Bands
Price volatility has expanded markedly, with the September 16 candle closing above the upper Bollinger Band ($122.40) – typically an indication of strong momentum. Band width has increased 25% since September 5, confirming heightened volatility. The consistent trading above the 20-day moving average mid-band since August reflects persistent demand. Traders should monitor whether the price maintains its position above the $122–$125 confluence zone to confirm breakout sustainability.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis confirms the rally’s validity, with September 16 recording 11.8 million shares traded – the highest since July 16. This represents an 85% increase over the 20-day average volume and confirms institutional participation. Crucially, each up day in the four-day rally saw successively higher volume, demonstrating accumulation. Earlier advances (e.g., August's 19% rise) lacked comparable volume confirmation, making the current volume profile technically more significant.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (74) has entered overbought territory, above the 70 threshold that historically precedes minor pullbacks in Baidu. However, RSI has not yet formed bearish divergence relative to price, and trends can sustain elevated RSI readings during strong momentum phases. While caution is warranted near current levels, RSI's warning nature must be contextualized with volume and trend confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $68 (October 2024) and high of $125 (March 2025), key Fibonacci levels provide structure:
- $116.86 (23.6% retracement) aligns with recent intraday low
- $111.82 (38.2%) converges with September 11 support
- $103.40 (50%) matches July–August consolidation
The rejection at the 38.2% level during September 8–11 established a base for the current surge. The critical resistance at the 0% retracement ($125) now becomes pivotal for continuation.
Concluding Synthesis
Technical confluence centers on the $122–$125 resistance zone, where Bollinger Band resistance, Fibonacci levels, and historical price action converge. Multiple indicators align for an overall bullish bias: MACD and moving averages confirm trend strength, while volume validates price breakthroughs. The primary cautionary signals emerge from KDJ and RSI overbought readings, suggesting near-term consolidation risk. Significant divergence between indicators is absent, reinforcing trend coherence. Traders should monitor price behavior at the $125 breakout level, with sustained closes above opening a technical target toward $138.50 (11% extension), while a reversal below $116.86 would negate the immediate bullish thesis.