AXT Inc (AXTI) Surges 9.6% as China Export Permits Clear 5G Supply Bottleneck

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) surged 9.60% on September 19, 2025, marking a two-day rally of 10.15% and reaching an intraday high of 12.63%, its highest level since September 2025. The stock’s momentum reflects renewed confidence in the company’s operational and regulatory progress.

A critical catalyst emerged as AXTI’s China-based unit secured export permits for gallium arsenide (GaAs) and germanium substrates on September 20, 2025. This development resolves a prior bottleneck caused by export restrictions, enabling shipments critical for 5G infrastructure and photonic applications. Analysts view this as a stabilization factor for near-term revenue and a positive signal for Q3 2025 performance, given AXTI’s reliance on China for high-purity materials.

Institutional activity further underscored optimism. Granahan Investment Management LLC increased holdings on September 11, 2025, while Perritt Capital Management Inc. added a $50,000 position on September 8, 2025. With 53% institutional ownership, these moves highlight strategic interest in AXTI’s role in semiconductor materials for 5G and AI-driven technologies.

Analyst sentiment remained cautiously bullish, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus on September 19, 2025, and a “Strong Buy” rating from Needham & Company LLC in August. Price targets, including a $4.60 target (5.99% above the closing price), reflect confidence in AXTI’s technical capabilities and long-term growth in photonic and AI markets.

Geopolitical risks linger, as AXTI’s operations remain sensitive to U.S.-China trade dynamics. While recent regulatory alignment eased short-term concerns, future export restrictions could disrupt supply chains. However, reduced short interest and active investor engagement, including Q2 2025 earnings webinars, signal improving market confidence in the company’s resilience.