Axie Infinity/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• AXSUSDT opened at $1.398 and surged to $1.561 before retreating to $1.444.
• Volume spiked at key resistance levels, indicating increased participation.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, showing no clear trend bias in 24 hours.
• RSI fluctuated between overbought and neutral, signaling mixed sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands tightened late in the session, hinting at potential volatility.

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) traded between $1.391 and $1.561 over the past 24 hours, opening at $1.398 and closing at $1.444 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 2.85 million contracts, with $4.24 million in notional turnover. Price exhibited choppy momentum, with multiple attempts to break above $1.53 and $1.561 failing due to strong counterpressure.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern early in the session, pushing AXSUSDT toward $1.515 before a bearish rejection followed at $1.561. The formation of a bearish reversal pattern at the highs and bullish hammer-like candles near $1.42 suggest key support and resistance levels at $1.485 and $1.525 respectively. A potential bullish flag pattern emerged from $1.48–$1.51, but it failed to hold above $1.53.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed twice during the session, signaling mixed momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA crossed above the 100DMA, suggesting a potential short-term bullish bias, though the 200DMA remains a critical resistance level. Current price action sits slightly above the 50SMA but below the 200DMA.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a divergent bearish signal as price hit $1.561, with the histogram shrinking while price declined. RSI peaked at 68 and dropped to 54, indicating overbought conditions earlier and a return to neutral territory. The RSI divergence and weak MACD confirm that momentum is shifting, with bears showing strength after the $1.561 high.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed between $1.45 and $1.49 in the final hours, indicating a period of consolidation and reduced volatility. Price closed near the mid-band, suggesting indecision. A breakout above the upper band would confirm a return to bullish momentum, while a break below the lower band could signal renewed bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key levels, including $1.515 and $1.425, with strong participation on both the long and short sides. Notional turnover followed volume closely, indicating consistent price discovery. Divergence occurred late in the session as price fell to $1.425 while volume remained muted, suggesting exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the recent swing high of $1.561 and low of $1.425, key Fibonacci levels at $1.524 (61.8%), $1.537 (50%), and $1.547 (38.2%) appear to act as critical support and resistance. Price has tested these levels multiple times, showing that traders are paying close attention to these levels for potential reversals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described hinges on capturing short-term momentum shifts using candlestick patterns. A potential test case would involve entering at the open following a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern and exiting at the close of the first bearish engulfing candle. This strategy could be applied to AXSUSDT with stop-loss and take-profit levels tied to Fibonacci retracement levels. The recent price action supports the feasibility of such a strategy, particularly in the $1.425–$1.561 range, where multiple high-probability setups occurred.