Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility and Key Supports Test Resilience

• Price tested key support at 2.202–2.208 before rebounding
• Volatility spiked mid-cycle, followed by a consolidation above 2.215
• Volume surged during the 3–4 AM ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum
• RSI bottomed near 30, suggesting short-term oversold conditions
• 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2.209 may hold critical short-term significance

Opening and Price Action Summary

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.233 on September 23 at 12:00 ET and traded between 2.162 and 2.25 throughout the 24-hour period. The price closed at 2.235 at 12:00 ET on September 24. Total notional volume amounted to 119,590.86 units, while total turnover was 261,702.53 USDT. The session featured a sharp selloff in the early hours of September 24 and a modest recovery in the following 12 hours, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 03:30–04:00 ET window, confirming a key breakdown after a brief consolidation. A notable support level emerged at 2.202–2.208, where the price found buying interest after a 35-minute candle closed at 2.182. A bullish hammer pattern appeared at 04:15–04:30 ET, indicating a short-term rejection of lower levels. Later, the price tested a bullish morning star near 2.233–2.239, suggesting potential for a recovery, though it remains unconfirmed.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price after the selloff, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period line acted as resistance during the 07:00–08:00 ET consolidation, before price moved above it. The daily chart shows the 50-period line at 2.227, while the 200-period line is at 2.211, suggesting that the 2.211 level may become key for near-term sentiment.

The RSI bottomed at 29.5 during the 04:00–04:15 ET window, signaling oversold conditions and a possible rebound. The MACD histogram showed a contraction in bearish momentum following the 05:00 ET recovery, suggesting a potential shift in short-term sentiment.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:30–04:30 ET breakdown, with price closing near the lower band at 2.182. The bands contracted during the 05:00–07:00 ET consolidation, suggesting a possible reversal. Price remained within the upper half of the band during the 09:00–11:00 ET recovery, indicating bullish participation but limited conviction.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked during the 03:30–04:30 ET selloff, reaching 52,775.53 units, while turnover hit a peak of 117,767.12 USDT. The selloff coincided with a sharp decline in price, confirming bearish participation. During the 09:00–11:00 ET recovery, volume averaged 12,000 units per 15 minutes, with turnover rising to 27,000 USDT, indicating moderate bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level from the 2.162–2.25 swing sits at 2.209, which the price tested twice and held during the 04:00–04:15 and 06:00–06:15 ET sessions. The 38.2% retracement is at 2.226 and acted as resistance during the 07:00–07:15 ET window. These levels may be critical for short-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover, combined with RSI levels and Fibonacci retracements, could offer a robust entry framework for the next 24 hours. Traders may consider entries near 2.209 (61.8% level) with a stop-loss below 2.202. Alternatively, a long entry could be triggered when price retests 2.226 with RSI above 50 and volume confirmation. This setup aligns with observed price patterns and Fibonacci support/resistance levels, offering a data-driven and risk-managed approach.