Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Consolidation

• Price action showed a bearish reversal trend after a sharp selloff early, followed by consolidation.
• Momentum indicators indicate oversold conditions later in the day, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Volatility remained elevated with key levels forming, suggesting increased sensitivity to news or orders.
• Bollinger Bands confirmed price contraction in early morning, followed by a breakout to the downside.
• Volume increased during the selloff, but notional turnover diverged slightly, signaling possible short-term uncertainty.

The AXSUSDT pair opened at $2.47 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of $2.488 before falling to a 24-hour low of $2.413. The pair closed at $2.468 at 12:00 ET on September 20, 2025. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 363,212.86 units, with a notional turnover of $905,962.88.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key bearish trend during the morning hours, with a sharp decline from $2.488 to $2.413 over 12 hours. A potential bullish reversal was observed in the late afternoon and evening, where prices bounced from $2.422 back to $2.468. A few engulfing bullish candles appeared between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, while a doji at 05:15 ET signaled indecision in the market. Key support levels emerged at $2.43 and $2.415, while resistance levels formed near $2.46 and $2.48.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA briefly crossed above the 50-period MA, indicating a potential short-term recovery. However, the 50-period MA remained below the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias on the longer horizon. Daily MA indicators showed the 50-period MA near $2.44, and the 200-period MA near $2.43, with price hovering above both, suggesting a cautious bullish tilt on the daily timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into bearish territory in the morning hours but showed a tentative bullish crossover in the late evening, signaling a potential short-term reversal. The RSI reached an oversold level of 28 in the early hours and rose back toward the neutral zone of 50 by market close, suggesting a temporary relief in selling pressure. However, the RSI has not yet broken into overbought territory, indicating that the market may still favor a consolidative or sideways move over a strong bullish breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the day, with a notable contraction observed between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, followed by a sharp breakout to the downside. This suggests a period of low volatility, followed by a directional move. The price closed near the middle band, indicating a potential shift in momentum toward the upper band in the short term if the bullish pattern holds.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the morning selloff, reaching a peak of 27,865.48 at 18:15 ET, which coincided with a price decline of over $0.03. Notional turnover increased proportionally at that time, indicating strong conviction in the move lower. However, during the afternoon rally, volume increased less significantly, while turnover remained steady, suggesting a weaker bullish confirmation. A divergence between price and turnover during the afternoon may indicate a possible pause in the recovery trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.488 to $2.413, the 61.8% level at $2.445 acted as a key support area and was tested twice during the day. The 38.2% retracement level at $2.464 coincided with a minor resistance area and was briefly broken before consolidation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from a previous bearish move at $2.48 to $2.37 appears near $2.44, aligning with the current price consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-term mean reversion setup triggered by the RSI hitting the 30 level and a bullish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart, followed by a MACD crossover above the signal line. This combination would be used to open a long position, with a stop-loss placed just below the nearest support level (e.g., $2.43) and a target aligned with the 61.8% retracement level at $2.445–$2.45. Such a strategy would aim to capitalize on the observed volatility and potential short-term bounce, with the Fibonacci and moving average levels providing clear reference points for entry, exit, and risk management.