Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview – October 21, 2025

• AXSUSDT traded lower overnight, closing at 1.589 vs. an open of 1.623
• Momentum shifted bearish with RSI dipping below 50 and MACD bearish crossover
• Volatility expanded as price broke below 1.60 support, triggering 1.59–1.586 pullback
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by a sharp expansion signaled increased bear pressure
• Turnover surged during the 1.6–1.591 leg down, confirming bearish price action

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 1.623 on October 20, 12:00 ET and closed at 1.589 on October 21, 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.628 and a low of 1.586 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 1,448,530.14, with a notional turnover of approximately $2.30 million.

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish momentum shift following a failed test of the 1.60–1.614 consolidation range. The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 1.614–1.605 level and followed through with a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The 20- and 50-period moving averages (20/50 MA) on the 15-minute chart turned negative mid-session, and the 50 MA crossed below the 100 MA on the daily chart, signaling a potential continuation of bearish sentiment.

The MACD on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish bias with a bearish crossover and declining histogram, while the RSI dipped below 50 and is now approaching oversold territory near 33. This suggests that the price could consolidate or stabilize temporarily, but given the strength of the recent bearish move, a further test of the 1.583–1.586 support zone appears likely. Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart expanded sharply following a period of contraction, indicating increased volatility and a potential breakaway.

Notable Fibonacci retracement levels from the October 20 swing high of 1.628 to the October 21 low of 1.586 include 1.613 (38.2%) and 1.602 (50%), which were tested and failed during the initial bearish move. Volume increased notably during the key breakdown phase between 1.60 and 1.591, confirming the bearish price action. However, a divergence between volume and price emerged as the price declined to the 1.596–1.592 range, where volume dipped despite continued bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and the confirmed breakdown of the 1.60–1.614 support/resistance zone, a backtesting strategy could be designed to test the validity of a short-biased RSI-based approach. Using a 14-period RSI on daily bars, a short position could be entered on the first day the RSI crosses below the 30 oversold level, provided the price is in a confirmed downtrend as per moving averages. The exit rule would involve taking profit when the price reaches 1.655, a key resistance level seen in the recent upswing, or when the RSI exits the oversold region and the MACD shows a bullish crossover. A stop-loss could be placed at 1.66 or 1.662 to limit risk in case of a bear trap or reversal.