Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-01

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• Price declines from 1.453 to 1.416 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum.
• RSI near 45 suggests neutral territory; MACD shows shrinking bullish divergence.
• High volume concentrated in 21:00–22:00 ET selloff; no strong support retests.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the lower band.
• No major candlestick reversal patterns but 61.8% Fib level at ~1.414 acts as temporary floor.

The AXS/USDT pair opened at 1.445 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 1.416 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.453 and a low of 1.411. Total volume amounted to 724,147.78 and notional turnover reached $1,036,919.23 across the 24-hour window. A bearish trend appears to have gained control, with sellers dominating from early ET hours onward.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bearish setups, including a series of lower highs and lower closes, with a 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~1.414 serving as a short-term floor. No strong bullish reversal patterns emerged; however, the 1.414–1.416 range may offer support for short-term traders to watch. The absence of strong reversal formations indicates a continuation of the bearish bias could be likely unless buyers step in near this level.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both below the current price, reflecting a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines are also trending lower, with the 50 SMA currently near 1.426, suggesting further downside potential ahead.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram shrinking, indicating weakening bearish momentum. RSI is in neutral range (~45) after a sharp decline, suggesting that the pair may be consolidating ahead of a potential rebound or continuation. However, no overbought or oversold extremes are present, limiting the use of RSI as a standalone trigger.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility appears moderate, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands showing a slight contraction in the final hours. Price has traded near the lower band for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish tone. No significant breakouts or contractions were observed that could indicate a shift in trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, coinciding with a drop from 1.419 to 1.411, suggesting a short-term capitulation move. However, subsequent volume failed to confirm a reversal, with price continuing lower. Turnover also followed volume closely, indicating aligned price and liquidity flows. Divergences were not observed during the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% level at ~1.414 has held as a key support level. The 38.2% level at ~1.425 acted as a minor resistance during the mid-session rally but failed to hold. Traders may want to monitor the 50% level at ~1.436 as a potential target for any countertrend bounce in the coming hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bearish trend and recurring setups in the 15-minute data, a backtest using a “Buy on Bullish Engulfing, hold 15 minutes” strategy could be applied to historical intraday data. Since our current engine supports day-level bars, we can simulate this strategy using a 1-day exit instead of 15 minutes. Alternatively, an exit at the next day’s open would better approximate a 24-hour hold. These approximations can be implemented to evaluate the viability of the pattern in a longer timeframe, though some intraday nuance may be lost. Your guidance on which method to adopt will allow us to proceed.

Looking ahead, a retest of the 1.414 level could provide an opportunity for short-term traders to assess support strength. However, with volume and momentum indicators still favoring the bear, a continued decline into the 1.405–1.41 range is possible. Investors should remain cautious and monitor for divergences or unexpected rallies that may signal a reversal.