Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• Price declined from 2.337 to 2.216, forming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening bullish signals with potential oversold readings.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening from 2.30 to 2.21 range.
• Key support tested at 2.21–2.23, while volume spiked during sharp sell-offs.
• Fibonacci retracement suggests 2.20–2.22 as potential near-term floor.

24-Hour Market Snapshot

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.305 and closed at 2.216 after hitting a high of 2.337 and a low of 2.182. The 24-hour volume amounted to 739,149.74 AXS with a total turnover of $1,635,602. A sharp decline occurred after 19:00 ET, where price dropped nearly 6.6% on increased volume. The market appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase, with key support at 2.21–2.23 showing resilience.

Structure & Key Levels

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 2.337–2.301 on 2025-10-03T17:00, followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Notable support levels include 2.216 (recent low), 2.245 (prior swing low), and 2.264 (a previous consolidation floor). Resistance is clustered between 2.288–2.295, with a doji forming at 2.295–2.297 on 2025-10-03T21:45. The 2.232–2.237 range also acted as a psychological floor during the morning hours, suggesting potential retests.

Moving Averages, MACD, and RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (2.268) and 50SMA (2.267) crossed below, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The daily 50SMA sits at 2.274, with the 200SMA at 2.326, suggesting a deeper bearish context. MACD turned negative at -0.0025, with the signal line crossing below, confirming bearish momentum. RSI fell to 30–32 during the overnight sell-off, indicating oversold conditions, although a bounce back to 37–39 may not trigger strong buying interest unless volume confirms a reversal.

Volatility and Volume Insights

Bollinger Bands widened significantly from a 2.29–2.32 range to 2.21–2.25 during the 24-hour window. Price closed near the lower band at 2.216, indicating high volatility and potential exhaustion. Volume surged during the 19:00–20:00 ET sell-off, peaking at $109,000 in turnover on the 2.301–2.262 candle. However, the recent 2.216–2.202 candle, though large in price movement, showed relatively modest volume, hinting at potential bearish fatigue.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 2.262–2.337 swing, the 38.2% level is at 2.298 and the 61.8% level is at 2.274. Price has failed to hold above 2.274 multiple times in the last 4 hours. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the 2.182–2.337 move sits at 2.260, which appears to act as a pivot point. A rebound from 2.21–2.22 may suggest a short-term 38.2% retracement target of 2.264, but a break below 2.201 could extend the move to 2.185.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach triggered when price closes below the 15-minute 50SMA and RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss at the previous swing high. Entry would occur at the open of the next candle, targeting a 38.2% retracement of the recent decline. Given today’s price behavior, this strategy would have entered at 2.262 with a target of 2.298 and a stop at 2.288, which aligns with the observed pattern of failed attempts to reclaim that level. The test would require volume confirmation on the long side, ideally above 10,000 AXS per candle, to validate bullish momentum.