Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-21

• Price action showed a bearish consolidation from a high of 2.473 to a 24-hour low of 2.406, followed by a modest rebound.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions mid-session, while volume remained uneven with peaks around 06:00–09:00 ET.
• A key support level at 2.414–2.416 held during a late morning rebound, followed by a failed attempt to push above 2.424.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the morning sell-off, indicating increased volatility.
• MACD turned neutral by the end of the session with no clear directional bias, suggesting potential indecision ahead.

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.465 at 12:00 ET – 1 and traded between 2.406 and 2.473 over the 24-hour period, closing at 2.409 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 231,662.95 and total turnover amounted to 569,240.32 USDT. Price action showed a bearish consolidation, followed by a tentative rebound in the afternoon.

Structure on the 15-minute chart revealed several key support and resistance levels. The most notable support came at 2.414–2.416, where price rebounded twice after a sharp decline. Resistance was seen at 2.424 and 2.428, where further buying pressure was met with selling. Candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing at 2.414 and a bearish dark cloud cover forming at 2.424. A doji at 03:45 ET indicated indecision during the recovery phase.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed twice, indicating a potential shift in short-term momentum. The 20 MA was above the 50 MA at the start of the day, but the 50 MA crossed above the 20 MA in the late morning, suggesting a bearish crossover. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) were not provided, but a bearish bias was visible in the short-term trend. MACD showed a negative divergence in the morning before turning neutral, while RSI hit oversold territory around 2.406 before a minor rebound.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the morning during the decline to 2.406, indicating increased volatility. Price remained below the lower band during this period, suggesting bearish exhaustion. As the session progressed, the bands narrowed slightly, indicating a potential contraction in volatility. Price hovered near the middle band during the afternoon rebound, suggesting a possible continuation of consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis: The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when RSI dips below 30 and price breaks below the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed above a recent swing high. A long position is triggered when RSI crosses above 70 and price breaks above the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss below a recent swing low. Given today’s data, the strategy would have generated a short signal at 05:45 ET when RSI dipped below 30 and price fell below the 20 MA. A long signal would not have occurred as RSI did not cross above 70. The short signal would have held until price either broke above 2.428 or RSI crossed back above 30. If applied over the 24-hour period, the strategy could have captured the bearish move but would have required a disciplined exit to avoid retesting support.