Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Analysis (2025-10-09)

• Price consolidates near 2.38e-06, with a minor 0.4% 24h decline.
• Volatility dipped mid-day, with volume concentrated in late-night trading.
• RSI neutral but near oversold, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands constricting, hinting at a possible breakout in next 24 hours.
• No strong bullish or bearish candle patterns, indicating market indecision.

The Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) pair opened at 2.42e-06 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 2.47e-06, and fell to a low of 2.34e-06 before closing at 2.38e-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 116,746.82 units, translating to a notional turnover of approximately $279.76 at BTC prices (assumed $60,000 for calculation).

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period shows a bearish bias with a consolidation phase at the lower end of the range. A key support level appears to be forming around 2.34e-06–2.36e-06, where the price found a floor during the afternoon session. A potential resistance is visible near 2.44e-06–2.45e-06, where the price failed to break through twice during the early morning and mid-day periods. A small bearish engulfing pattern can be observed in the candle at 02:45 ET, indicating short-term bearish momentum. A doji around 04:45 ET suggests indecision and a possible reversal point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is currently above the 50-period line, indicating a bearish bias in the short-term trend. The 50-period MA is slowly crossing below the 20-period MA, suggesting a potential bearish crossover in the next few hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend. The 100-period MA aligns closely with the 200-period MA, indicating no immediate trend reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line in the last two hours, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram is shrinking, indicating decreasing bearish momentum, which could signal an overextended position. The RSI is currently at 32, suggesting the pair is near oversold territory, which may indicate a short-term bounce. However, it's unlikely to confirm a major reversal unless the RSI closes above 40.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have recently narrowed, indicating a period of low volatility. Price remains within the upper and lower bands, with no breakout observed over the last 24 hours. The narrowing bands suggest the market may be preparing for a potential breakout, either to the upside or downside, depending on the volume and order flow in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity increased notably between 02:30 ET and 03:30 ET, during which the price tested and rejected 2.44e-06. This suggests short-term bearish conviction. Turnover spiked during the same period, aligning with the price rejection, which strengthens the bearish signal. A divergence appears in the volume and price action after 04:30 ET, where volume declines while the price continues to fall, indicating possible exhaustion. This may be a signal for a short-term rebound or consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.47e-06 to 2.34e-06, the price appears to have found temporary support at the 61.8% level (2.37e-06). The 38.2% level (2.42e-06) was a previous point of resistance and is now a potential support level for the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level aligns with the 2.34e-06–2.36e-06 support area. This suggests that if the price breaks below that level, it may target the next major support near 2.28e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (2.37e-06) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed above the 38.2% retracement level (2.42e-06). A take-profit target could be set at the 2.34e-06 support area, with a second target at 2.28e-06 if the initial break confirms bearish momentum. The RSI and MACD should also align with the price action—RSI below 35 and MACD bearish crossover—to increase the probability of success. Given the recent volume profile and price behavior, this strategy could be tested over the next 48 hours to validate its effectiveness in a consolidating market.