Avista Pauses Data Center Project After Wildfires

On August 10, 2026, Avista Corporation (AVA) experienced a 1.59% decline within a 24-hour period, settling at $0.2039. Despite this short-term dip, the asset demonstrated resilience over longer horizons, recording a 12.88% increase over the past seven days and a 27.39% surge within the last month. Conversely, the one-year performance remains negative, with a 26.49% drop compared to the previous year.

Q2 Earnings Performance and Operational Challenges

Avista reported its second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 3, 2026. The utility provider surpassed earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 20.83%, posting $0.29 against an expected $0.24. However, revenue fell short of projections, missing by 0.71% at $426.93 million compared to the forecasted $429.98 million. The stock price reacted negatively to the report, falling 3.07%, driven largely by concerns surrounding recent wildfire incidents in Spokane.

The wildfires resulted in service disruptions for 7,300 electric and 5,300 natural gas customers. Management prioritized damage assessment and restoration efforts over routine financial metrics during the earnings call. Additionally, the company removed a 500 MW data-center project from its capital plan upside. This pause on the memorandum of understanding (MOU) was implemented until clear net benefits and reliability assurances for existing customers could be established.

Regulatory Outlook and Non-Regulated Segment

The Washington four-year rate case remains on schedule, with hearings set for September 17-18 and a decision anticipated by mid-December. However, the Chief Financial Officer cautioned that reaching a settlement would be "quite difficult."

In the non-regulated segment, results were bolstered by gains related to an IPO in the Environmental Infrastructure Partners (EIP) fund. While another gain is expected in the third quarter, management noted that these returns are subject to reversal based on volatility in public investments.

Dividend History and Institutional Activity

Avista announced a quarterly dividend of $0.4925 per share. The ex-dividend date is set for August 18, 2026, with payments scheduled for September 14, 2026. This distribution reflects an annualized dividend of $1.97, yielding approximately 5.09% based on current pricing. The dividend payout ratio stands at 71.12%.

Institutional investor activity has been notable. Quantinno Capital Management LP significantly increased its stake in Avista by 205.4% in the first quarter, ending with 73,821 shares valued at approximately $2.96 million. Other institutions, including UMB Bank n.a. and CIBC Private Wealth Group LLC, also expanded their holdings in the fourth quarter. Institutional investors collectively own 85.24% of the company.

Financial Ratios and Analyst Forecasts

Avista’s financial metrics show a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.01 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.17. The company’s beta is 0.25, indicating lower volatility relative to the broader market. Gross margins for the trailing twelve months (TTM) stood at 66.75%, significantly higher than the industry average of 37.41%. Return on equity (ROE) for the TTM period was 8.31%.

Analysts maintain a cautious stance on the stock. Barclays lowered its price target from $40.00 to $37.00, assigning an "equal weight" rating. Mizuho raised its target from $41.00 to $42.00 with a "neutral" rating, while Wells Fargo set a $39.00 target. Weiss Ratings upgraded Avista to a "buy (b)" rating. On average, research analysts forecast earnings per share of $2.58 for the current fiscal year, with an average price target of $39.25. The company’s FY 2026 guidance ranges from $2.52 to $2.72 in EPS.