Avis Budget Group's Stock Slides 1.49% as $0.19B Volume Ranks 471st in Daily Trading Activity Amid Institutional Shuffling and Earnings Woes

On August 25, 2025, Avis Budget Group (CAR) closed with a 1.49% decline, trading at a volume of $0.19 billion, ranking 471st in daily trading activity. Institutional investor activity highlighted shifting positions, including Vanguard Group reducing holdings by 1.8% in Q4 and Norges Bank acquiring $11.2 million in shares. Short interest surged 21.2% in March, reaching 4.58 million shares, or 13.5% of outstanding stock, indicating bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed auto tariffs spurred speculation about increased rental demand, briefly lifting the stock earlier in the quarter.

Q2 2025 earnings revealed significant challenges, with GAAP EPS plummeting to $0.10 from $0.41 a year prior, driven by $59 million in restructuring costs and higher debt expenses. Revenue held flat at $3.04 billion, masking regional divergence: international markets grew 2.9% to $707 million, while the Americas declined. Operational improvements, including 14% lower fleet costs in the Americas and 70.7% vehicle utilization, contrasted with pricing pressures and negative adjusted free cash flow (-$475M year-to-date). Management reiterated long-term EBITDA targets but signaled caution on near-term profitability.

A strategic pivot toward premium services, such as the "Avis First" concierge offering and a Waymo partnership in Dallas, underscored efforts to differentiate. However, liquidity constraints—$950 million cash and $6.08 billion in debt—highlight leverage risks. The backtest of a volume-weighted trading strategy from 2022 to 2025 yielded a 31.52% total return over 365 days, averaging 0.98% per day. The strategy peaked at 7.02% in June 2023 but dropped -4.65% in September 2022, reflecting market volatility. This suggests short-term momentum potential but underscores the need for risk management amid Avis’ operational and financial headwinds.