Avery Dennison Outlook - Mixed Signals in a Neutral Technical Climate

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Avery Dennison (AVY) remains in technical neutrality amid a recent price drop of -4.20%, with analysts and models offering a cautiously watchful stance.

News Highlights

Recent news affecting AVY includes:

• EPE USA advances in sustainable packaging: Innovations in eco-friendly materials could signal positive industry trends for Avery Dennison, which also focuses on packaging solutions.
• China’s factory activity shows tentative signs of recovery: A PMI of 49.5 in May suggests slowing contraction, potentially supporting global supply chains and demand for Avery Dennison’s products.
• Crypto ETF developments: While not directly linked to AVY, new Ethereum and Solana ETFs highlight evolving capital flows that could influence broader market sentiment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided, with a simple average rating of 3.80 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.43. These metrics reflect a generally neutral to bearish outlook, with rating dispersion indicating no strong consensus. For reference, the current price trend (-4.20%) aligns with the weighted expectations of analysts.

Key fundamentals and internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Non-current assets / Total assets: 62.84%, with a score of 3.19—suggesting moderate leverage concerns.
• Basic earnings per share (YoY): +3.92%, with a score of 3.19—indicating modest growth.
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY): -93.77%, with a score of 3.19—highlighting a sharp drop in cash flow.
• Operating cycle: 121.77 days, with a score of 3.19—signaling a long working capital cycle.
• Cash-UP: 0.24, with a score of 3.19—suggesting limited liquidity flexibility.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are negative overall, with large and extra-large investors pulling back. However, medium and small investors are showing positive inflow trends. Specifically:

• Overall inflow ratio: 49.22%
• Block inflow ratio: 49.10%
• Large inflow ratio: 50.41%
• Small inflow ratio: 50.97%

With a fund flow score of 7.63, the market’s internal diagnostic suggests that while major players are cautious, retail and mid-sized investors are showing some interest.

Key Technical Signals

From the technical side, Avery Dennison remains in a wait-and-see phase. The overall technical score is 5.91, with the following internal diagnostic scores (0-10) for key indicators:

• Williams %R Oversold: Score 3.3—a neutral signal with mixed historical performance.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score 7.22—a bullish bias, historically yielding a win rate of 66.67% and an average return of 1.24%.
• Dividend Record Date: Score 7.22—similar bullish implications, also showing a 66.67% win rate and 1.24% average return.

Recent chart patterns: From 2025-08-29 to 2025-09-10, the Williams %R Oversold signal was active multiple times, with the Ex-Dividend and Dividend Record Dates both occurring on 2025-09-03, suggesting that dividend-related activity may have played a role in short-term price behavior.

Conclusion

Avery Dennison is in a technical holding pattern, with mixed signals from both analysts and big-money flows. The bullish dividend-related indicators and strong retail inflows offer some support, but the overall environment remains neutral. Given the mixed technical and fundamental signals, investors may want to consider waiting for clearer momentum or a pullback before taking a firm position. Monitoring the next earnings report and dividend developments could provide more direction.