Average Bitcoin ETF Buy Underwater as Investors Pull $2.8B in 2 Weeks

Bitcoin ETF buyers are underwater, with the average purchase price at $90,200 while BTC trades at $84,000 according to data. This 7% drop has left investors reevaluating their exposure to the market, as recent outflows highlight a broader trend of caution. Over the past two weeks, ETFs have pulled out $2.8 billion, a significant shift from the inflows seen earlier in the year.

The drawdown reflects broader instability across the crypto sector. BitMine Immersion, which holds over 4.24 million ETH, is facing over $6 billion in unrealized losses, underscoring the risks for crypto balance-sheet strategies according to Seeking Alpha. Ether has fallen to around $2,200, with staked holdings valued at $5.7 billion as of January 25, 2026 as reported.

Bitcoin's slide has also impacted institutional players. Tesla Inc. reported $1.008 billion in digital assets as of December 31, down 23% from the previous quarter. The company has not sold any Bitcoin but has recorded significant paper losses during the recent market correction.

Why Did This Happen?

The sell-off accelerated as liquidity conditions tightened. Treasury issuance drained $64.3 billion from markets last week, contributing to the broader risk-asset selloff. This week's continued Treasury activity is expected to add to the pressure. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is nearing $950 billion, raising the possibility of increased liquidity drains in coming weeks.

Exchange-based indicators also point to a potential bearish phase. The Binance Reserve Cost indicator, which tracks the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin on the exchange, now stands at $62,000. This level has not been tested since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, raising concerns about whether the current drawdown is part of a deeper bear phase.

How Did Markets React?

Retail demand has contracted significantly, according to on-chain data. Transactions under $10,000 show a sharp decline in smaller investor participation, a sign of reduced market stability. ETF outflows have further weakened the bid, as they were a key source of demand during the bull phase.

Bitcoin's supply-in-loss metric has begun trending higher, a sign often seen at the early stages of bear markets. This metric has historically marked the start of prolonged downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Current levels remain below those seen during full capitulation phases, suggesting the market could still be in the process of finding a bottom.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Bitcoin is currently testing the structural floor defined by the combined average purchase price of Strategy and spot BTC ETFs at $84.5K according to data. A sustained dip below this level may signal a deeper bearish phase. If BTC rebounds, defending $84.5K will be crucial to maintaining the broader bullish market structure.

Analysts are also watching ETF inflow patterns. The 30-day average of BTC demand growth has turned negative for the first time since mid-2025. A return to net buying could signal a stabilization phase. However, this is unlikely until the new Fed chair is confirmed and tested, as outlined by Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry is advancing legislation to regulate crypto markets according to reports. This development could bring more institutional clarity but is not expected to immediately reverse the current bearish trend.

With ETFs and retail investors pulling back, the market has become increasingly dependent on leverage and short-term traders. This dynamic amplifies volatility, as seen in the recent sharp correction. BexBack has launched no-KYC crypto perpetual futures with 100x leverage and a 100% deposit bonus to help traders navigate this environment.

Bitcoin's next support test could define the cycle's true low. Analysts suggest a potential bear market low between $56,000 and $60,000. Until then, the market remains focused on downside risk management, with over $4.5 billion in realized losses recorded since BTC fell below $90,000 according to data.