AVAXUSDT Market Overview: Bearish Consolidation, Divergence, and Volatility Expansion

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• AVAXUSDT traded in a bearish consolidation pattern, closing below key 15-minute resistance levels.
• Momentum waned as RSI dipped below 50, with volume declining after a large sell-off in late ET.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level appears to have acted as strong support near $33.40–33.50 during the early morning selloff.
• Notable divergence between price and volume emerged as price fell but volume spiked only twice during the move.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $33.88 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at $33.65 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $34.39 and low of $32.86. The total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 3.91 million AVAX, and the notional turnover (amount in USD) was ~$128.5 million.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, AVAXUSDT demonstrated a bearish consolidation pattern, marked by a late-night sell-off from $33.95 to $33.13. A key support level formed around the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the $33.13–$34.39 range near $33.40–33.50, which halted the decline. A large bearish engulfing pattern appeared around the $33.88–$33.95 zone before the selloff began, signaling a potential bearish reversal. A doji formed near $33.76 in the early morning hours, indicating indecision and potential reversal signals.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart moved lower throughout the session, confirming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, AVAXUSDT closed below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the short- and medium-term bearish bias. The price is currently in a bearish crossover, with the 50-day SMA pulling away from the 100-day SMA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum, and remained negative for most of the session. The histogram contracted slightly in the early morning hours, suggesting a temporary slowdown in selling pressure. RSI dipped below 50, reaching as low as 28, signaling oversold conditions. However, the failure to rebound above 50 suggests lingering bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late-night and early-morning selloff, pushing AVAXUSDT to the lower Bollinger Band. Price spent a significant portion of the 24-hour period near the lower band, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in band width occurred briefly before the selloff, which could have signaled an impending move, though it was quickly followed by expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked twice during the selloff, notably during the $33.95–$33.35 move, with large notional turnover observed during those intervals. Despite falling prices, volume was not consistently strong, indicating weak conviction in the bearish move. Divergence between price and volume occurred as the price fell sharply, but volume failed to consistently confirm the bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high ($34.39) and low ($32.86), the 61.8% level at $33.40–33.50 was a key support area that halted the selloff. The 38.2% level at $33.76 also acted as temporary support. If the price breaks below $33.13, the next major Fibonacci target would be $32.70, but that would require a significant reacceleration in bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when a bearish engulfing candle closes below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with additional confirmation if the RSI drops below 40 and the candle closes near the lower Bollinger Band. Stop-loss is placed above the high of the engulfing candle, and the target is set at the next Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. This setup was observed in AVAXUSDT on 2025-09-19 at 16:15 ET, where the price closed at $34.23 after a bearish engulfing pattern, and the conditions aligned for the strategy. Given the subsequent price movement, the strategy would have yielded a profitable trade with a stop-loss above $34.39.