AVAXUSDT Market Overview – 2025-09-23

• AVAX/USDT surged to a 24-hour high of $36.16 amid strong volume and rising momentum.
• Key resistance appears near $35.64 and $35.43 with bearish reversal signs at 08:45 ET.
• Volatility expanded during the 03:45–04:45 ET window, with RSI reaching overbought levels.
• Price action suggests consolidation near $34.90–$35.25 as short-term support holds.

The 24-hour period for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $31.77 on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and closed at $34.90 on 2025-09-23 at 16:00 ET. During the session, the pair reached a high of $36.16 and a low of $31.35. Total volume across the 15-minute candles was 17.83 million AVAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $624.4 million.

Structure & Formations

The price structure shows a clear bullish bias, with a strong rally unfolding from $31.35 to $36.16. Key resistance levels formed at $35.64, $35.43, and $35.16, while support appears clustered around $34.90 and $34.65. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle at 08:45 ET, signaling potential short-term exhaustion after a steep move. A large doji at 03:45 ET indicated indecision during a high volatility phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA is positioned below the 50-period SMA, indicating a bullish short-term bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA above the 200-period SMA, reinforcing the idea of a medium-term uptrend. The 100-period SMA appears to act as a dynamic support level around $34.60–$34.70.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the early morning surge, confirming bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) during the 04:00–05:00 ET window, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the price did not correct significantly, indicating strong buying pressure. RSI currently stands at around 60, suggesting a balanced phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion between 03:45 and 04:45 ET, aligning with the highest volatility period of the day. Price action moved above the upper band temporarily, signaling a strong bullish move. It has since retracted toward the middle band, suggesting a period of consolidation. The bands have since begun to contract, potentially leading to a breakout or breakdown in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:45–04:45 ET window, coinciding with the move above $35.76. The highest notional turnover occurred during the same period, reinforcing the strength of the upward move. A divergence in volume occurred around 08:45 ET, where price declined but volume did not increase significantly, suggesting a potential stall in the uptrend. Overall, volume remains supportive of bullish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing from $31.35 to $36.16, key levels include 38.2% at $34.60 and 61.8% at $35.11. The 0.618 level coincides with a recent support area and appears to have held during the consolidation phase. If price continues to move lower, the next Fibonacci support at $33.41 becomes a watch point for trend continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price closes above the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart and RSI is below 50, with a stop-loss placed just below the nearest Fibonacci support. The initial target would be the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and a take-profit could be set at the 0.618 level. This approach could be tested using the recent AVAX/USDT pattern, particularly around the 04:00–05:00 ET surge, where conditions were met for potential long entry.