AVAX/USDT Market Overview

• AVAX/USDT fell 6.5% over 24 hours with strong bearish momentum indicated by RSI below 30.
• Price broke below key support at $30.50, confirming a bearish reversal pattern after a failed rebound.
• Volatility spiked with wide Bollinger Bands, but volume failed to confirm bearish acceleration during the selloff.
• Fibonacci levels indicate potential support at $29.40 and resistance at $30.02 for near-term traders.
• MACD histogram turned negative, signaling weakening bullish momentum and likely continuation of the downward trend.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $30.85 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET and closed at $28.54 by 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $30.98 and a low of $28.53. Total volume was 2,085,847.09 AVAX, with notional turnover of $59,043,828.13. The pair has entered bearish territory, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and a potential pullback ahead.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish engulfing pattern at $30.71–$30.96, followed by a failed rebound and a breakdown below $30.50. A key support at $29.40 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent $30.50–$30.98 move. A doji formed at $30.24–$30.10 on October 7, indicating indecision and a possible near-term reversal.

Moving Averages & Volatility

The 20-EMA on the 15-min chart crossed below the 50-EMA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-SMA sits at $30.25, with the 200-SMA at $29.90, suggesting continued bearish bias. Bollinger Bands have expanded due to increased volatility, with price trading near the lower band, signaling a potential bounce.

Momentum & Divergence

The RSI dropped to 28 by 12:00 ET, entering oversold territory but not yet signaling a bottom. MACD turned negative, with the histogram widening, indicating deepening bearish momentum. However, volume failed to confirm a strong bearish breakout during the $30.50 breakdown, which may hint at a possible reversal if price bounces from $29.40.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible strategy involves entering a short position when RSI falls below 30 and the 20-EMA crosses under the 50-EMA on the 15-min chart. A stop-loss is placed above the recent 61.8% Fibonacci level at $30.02, with a take-profit target at the 38.2% retracement at $29.40. This approach would have captured the bearish move starting from $30.71. A backtest using this logic could validate whether the momentum and structure signals align with profitable outcomes in a live market.