AVAX/USDT Market Overview for 2025-09-19

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $35.78 before consolidating below $35.00.
• RSI shows overbought conditions near $35.40, indicating possible bearish pressure.
• Volatility expanded on the 15-minute chart, with price breaching key support at $34.70.
• Strong volume spikes confirmed the $35.00–$34.70 reversal, aligning with a bearish engulfing pattern.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $32.99 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $35.78. The pair closed at $33.95 as of 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, with a total volume of 2,566,566.92 AVAX and a notional turnover of $87,066,630. The price showed a sharp rally, consolidation, and pullback pattern over the day, marked by increased volatility and key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the $35.00–$34.70 level, suggesting a short-term reversal. A key resistance was identified at $35.00, with support forming at $34.70 and $34.40. A doji appeared at $34.73 (19:45 ET), signaling indecision. A potential breakdown below $34.40 could lead to further testing of the $34.00 psychological level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a potential death cross. The 50-period MA on the daily chart crossed above the 200-period MA, indicating long-term bullish momentum. The 100-period MA at $34.20 acted as a support level during consolidation phases.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed positive momentum early in the rally but diverged with price after $34.70, indicating weakening bullish sentiment. RSI reached overbought territory near $35.40, with a bearish divergence as price moved lower despite RSI failing to retest 70. The RSI is currently at ~56, suggesting a neutral bias toward a potential bounce or continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the price moved between the upper and lower bands, with a notable contraction forming ahead of the $34.70 breakdown. The price is currently trading near the middle band, with the upper band at $35.35 and the lower band at $34.15. A breakout above the upper band could indicate renewed bullish momentum, but current positioning suggests a range-bound pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the $35.00–$34.70 reversal, confirming the bearish shift. Notional turnover spiked during this move, aligning with the price decline. However, volume has since dropped, suggesting reduced conviction in the current downward trend. A divergence between volume and price movement near $34.40 implies caution for further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the $34.70–$35.78 move lies at $35.34, currently acting as a key resistance. The 61.8% level is at $34.94, where price stalled on multiple occasions. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bullish leg is at $33.96, where the price has found temporary support, aligning with the RSI and Bollinger band readings.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence could be implemented as a short entry near $34.70 with a stop-loss above $35.00 and a target near $34.40. Given the strong volume confirmation and multiple time frame alignment, this setup carries a moderate-to-high probability of success. The strategy would benefit from a trailing stop once the price consolidates below $34.60, capitalizing on the mean-reversion bias.