AVAX's Critical $28 Support Level Amid Rising DeFi TVL and Avalanche Ecosystem Growth

Avalanche (AVAX) stands at a pivotal juncture in September 2025, with its price hovering near the $28 support level—a critical technical threshold amplified by robust fundamental momentum. This convergence of technical and fundamental factors presents a compelling case for investors to evaluate AVAX's medium-term trajectory.

Technical Convergence: The $28 Support as a Decision Point

The $28 level has emerged as a linchpin for AVAX's short-term direction. Technically, this area coincides with the 50-day moving average ($28.75) and the lower boundary of an ascending wedge patternAVAX Price Analysis - September 16, 2025^[1]. A breakdown below $28 could trigger a retest of prior supports at $24.66 and $23.95, while a sustained breakout above $28.69—currently the immediate resistance—could propel AVAX toward $30 and beyondAvalanche (AVAX) Surges Amid Breakout Signals and Growing …^[2].

On-chain metrics reinforce this significance. The recent 24% price surge from $22 to $28.69 was driven by a 49% increase in whale activity and a 14% rise in trading volumeAVAX Price Rises 24% as Whale Transactions Surge^[3]. However, a large liquidation pool of 563,000 AVAX at $26.73 poses a near-term risk, potentially causing a retracement if buyers falterAVAX Soars 24% in 48 Hours as Key Support Level Holds^[4]. Meanwhile, bullish momentum indicators like RSI (60) and a MACD crossover suggest the asset remains in a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakoutAvalanche (AVAX) Technical Analysis - hyphub.com^[5].

Fundamental Catalysts: TVL Growth and Ecosystem Expansion

Avalanche's fundamentals are equally compelling. The network's DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) has surged to $2.27 billion as of late September 2025—the highest level since August 2022Avalanche Price Spikes 10% as Its DeFi TVL Surpasses 2 Billion^[6]. This represents a doubling of TVL since April 2025, fueled by strategic integrations such as Ethena Labs' sUSDe and Pendle Finance, which unlocked new yield marketsAvalanche (AVAX) Surges Amid Breakout Signals and Growing …^[7]. Institutional interest has further accelerated adoption, with Anthony Scaramucci's $300 million tokenized hedge fund initiative and SkyBridge Capital's asset migration to the networkHow Far Can the AVAX Price Go This September? - Coinpedia^[8].

The partnership with Toyota, announced in September 2025, adds another layer of credibility. By leveraging Avalanche's blockchain for supply chain and mobility solutions, the collaboration underscores the network's utility beyond DeFi, attracting a broader investor baseAvalanche (AVAX) Price Breaks $28 as Toyota Partnership Fuels …^[9].

Convergence of Price and Value

The interplay between technical and fundamental factors creates a self-reinforcing dynamic. A sustained rally above $28 would not only validate the bullish technical setup but also align with Avalanche's growing TVL and institutional adoption. Conversely, a breakdown below $26.73 could temporarily dampen sentiment, though the long-term uptrend remains intact given AVAX's position above key moving averages and its strong on-chain fundamentalsAvalanche (AVAX) Attempting a Bullish Move—Can it Make it^[10].

For investors, the $28 level represents a high-probability decision point. If the Avalanche ecosystem continues to attract DeFi projects and institutional capital—while technical indicators maintain bullish bias—AVAX could realistically target $36–$50 in the medium term. However, prudence is warranted given the proximity of liquidation risks and the need for sustained volume to confirm a breakout.

Conclusion

Avalanche's $28 support level is more than a technical artifact; it is a reflection of the network's broader narrative. With DeFi TVL surging and strategic partnerships expanding its utility, AVAX's fundamentals provide a sturdy foundation for the price to hold this critical level. For those willing to navigate the volatility, the coming weeks could offer a defining opportunity to align with a project poised at the intersection of technical resilience and fundamental growth.