AVAX's Buyers and Sellers Battle at $25.99 Crossroads

Avalanche’s native token AVAX continues to hover near key resistance levels within an extended ascending triangle pattern, sparking speculation about whether it will break out to the upside or face a potential reversal. Technical indicators suggest a growing bullish bias, with on-chain data indicating ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The token’s price has been oscillating within a defined range for months, with a recent 12% rally in a single day signaling renewed buyer interest, particularly around the $25.99 resistance level [1].

On the technical front, the stochastic RSI has recently turned upward from oversold levels, a sign that momentum is favoring bulls [1]. Additionally, AVAX has been forming higher lows since late July, a positive sign for accumulation activity and potential support resilience. The RSI currently rests at 52.34, providing room for further upward movement without reaching overbought territory [3]. The MACD has also shown a slight bullish tilt, suggesting that a consolidation phase may precede a more decisive move.

Despite these bullish signals, on-chain data reveals a different narrative. Spot cumulative volume delta and futures activity highlight the persistence of selling pressure, as much of the recent price rally appears to be occurring against steady sell orders [1]. This has led to a delayed breakout, with AVAX still struggling to decisively push above key resistance levels. CryptoQuant data further indicates that sellers remain active, pointing to ongoing hesitancy among bearish participants [1].

Liquidity conditions may play a pivotal role in determining the direction of the next move. CryptoQuant’s liquidation maps show several clusters of liquidations positioned just above the current market price. These liquidity clusters are known for attracting price flows, and if AVAX drifts toward these zones, it could trigger a forced liquidation of short positions, potentially propelling the token higher [1]. A clean breakout above $26–$27 would likely set AVAX on a path toward the $35–$40 range, aligning with longer-term trendline projections [4].

Market structure is also being closely watched by analysts. The daily chart shows AVAX trading above its 20, 50, and 200-period SMAs, indicating a strong underlying uptrend. A confirmed breakout above $25.99 on increased volume would act as a catalyst for further momentum, with the first target at $27 and a more ambitious target at $32.37, representing a potential 130% gain from current levels [3]. However, a breakdown below $22.19 could initiate a more bearish scenario, with the next support level at $18.09 [3].

A potential structural shift for AVAX may come from the institutional investment arena. Grayscale recently filed with the SEC to convert its Avalanche Trust into an ETF, a move that could significantly increase institutional exposure to the token. The trust currently holds $13.7 million in AVAX and charges a 2.5% expense ratio. The approval of this ETF is seen as a bullish catalyst that could accelerate AVAX’s adoption and potentially reverse its year-to-date losses [2]. Other asset management firms, including VanEck, are also pursuing AVAX-linked ETF listings, signaling broader institutional interest [2].

For traders and investors, the current setup presents a high-conviction trade. An optimal entry point is considered to be within the $24.00–$24.50 range, with a stop-loss recommended below $22.00. If AVAX breaks through the $25.99 resistance on strong volume, the next key target is $27, followed by $32.37. A failure to break above this level could see AVAX retreating toward $22 or even $20 [3]. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the outcome of this consolidation phase, with technical indicators and liquidity conditions expected to play a key role in shaping the token’s near-term trajectory.

Source: [1] AVAX at a crossroads: Bulls build momentum, but sellers resist (https://ambcrypto.com/avax-at-a-crossroads-bulls-build-momentum-but-sellers-resist/) [2] Avalanche Price Prediction: Grayscale Files for AVAX ETF on Nasdaq – Could This Trigger a Run to $500? (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/8c5ec-avalanche-price-prediction-grayscale-files-for-avax-etf-on-nasdaq-could-this-trigger-a-run-to-500) [3] AVAX Price Prediction: Targeting $32 Breakout Within 30 Days (https://blockchain.news/news/20250827-price-prediction-avax-targeting-32-breakout-within-30-days) [4] Avalanche (AVAX) Price Tests the Ceiling – Here’s When Traders Might See the Next Big Push (https://captainaltcoin.com/avalanche-avax-price-tests-the-ceiling-heres-when-traders-might-see-the-next-big-push/)