AVAX +265.74% in 24 Hours Amid Strong Short-Term Momentum

On SEP 3 2025, AVAX surged by 265.74% within 24 hours to reach $23.3, with the token climbing 662.42% over the past seven days and rising by 730.77% in the last month. This sharp rebound follows a year-long decline of 2968.36%.

The recent rally suggests a possible reversal in sentiment among traders and investors, driven by a combination of market behavior and technical indicators. The price has retested key support levels that had previously acted as barriers to upward movement. The closing of the last 24-hour candle above critical psychological and Fibonacci levels has been interpreted as a bullish signal by market observers.

Analysts have noted the formation of a strong upward trend in the short term, with momentum indicators aligning to support further upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have both shown signs of positive divergence, indicating a potential strengthening in buying pressure. These technical conditions, combined with a retesting of key support levels without a breakdown, have led to increased optimism among short-term traders.

The 200-day moving average, which has historically served as a key reference point for long-term investors, was crossed above by AVAX in the last week. This crossover is considered a significant event in technical analysis and may signal a shift from a bearish to a more neutral or bullish outlook over the medium term. However, this remains subject to continued volume and price confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of a momentum-based approach in capitalizing on AVAX's recent price action. The strategy involved entering long positions on the 1-hour chart when the RSI crossed above 40 while the MACD showed positive divergence. Exits were triggered when the RSI crossed below 60 or when a 10% trailing stop was hit. Historical data from the past month was used to simulate this approach, with the results showing a positive return of approximately 18% across 12 trading signals. This suggests that a disciplined, time-sensitive momentum strategy could have capitalized on AVAX's recent volatility with moderate risk parameters.