Avantis/Tether Market Overview (AVNTUSDT): Sharp Rebound and Volatility Expansion

• Price dropped from 0.9875 to 0.9151 in early trading but rebounded sharply to 1.0733 near session peak.
• Strong volume and turnover spikes occurred during the 19:30–20:00 ET rally, confirming upward momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions late in the session, raising short-term correction risks.
• Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion during the rally, indicating heightened volatility.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight 0.968–1.019 as key support/resistance cluster ahead.

Opening and Price Action Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on September 16, 2025, Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 0.9767 and fell to 0.9151 before a strong rebound pushed the price to a 24-hour high of 1.0733 by 15:45 ET. The pair closed at 1.0232 at 12:00 ET on September 17. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 58,391,035.04, while total turnover (notional) reached approximately 57,760,887.51 (volume × price).

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support cluster between 0.95 and 0.968, where buying interest emerged multiple times. A strong bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:30–20:00 ET, marking a reversal after the early morning decline. A doji near the high of the session (1.0733) at 15:45 ET may signal a near-term pullback. Resistance appears to be forming around 1.0733 and 1.0351, while critical support levels are 1.019 and 0.968.

Moving Averages and Indicators

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a steep upward crossover during the rally phase, aligning with the price surge. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is currently below price action, suggesting a potential shift toward a bullish trend. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) at 15:45 ET, signaling a possible retracement. MACD confirmed the bullish momentum with a strong positive divergence in late trading.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 19:30–20:00 ET rally, with price closing near the upper band. This indicates heightened volatility and potential exhaustion of the upward move. A retest of the upper band could confirm the breakout, but a close below the middle band (1.019–1.032) may lead to renewed selling pressure.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally phase, particularly between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, confirming the strength of the move. Turnover also surged during this period, aligning with price direction and suggesting genuine buying interest. However, divergences between price and volume are not significant yet. A sustained decline in volume during pullbacks may hint at waning bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing (0.9151–1.0733) highlights 0.968 (38.2%) and 1.019 (61.8%) as critical levels. These levels align with major support and resistance zones observed in the OHLCV data. A break above 1.0733 would target 1.099 (78.6%) as the next potential level, while a breakdown below 0.968 would aim for 0.95 and then 0.924 as key tests.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves identifying bullish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, particularly during periods of low volatility followed by sharp volume increases. When such patterns appear near key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 61.8%) and are confirmed by MACD divergence and RSI overbought conditions, a long position could be initiated with a stop-loss just below the engulfing pattern’s low. Given the pattern observed at 19:30–20:00 ET and the confluence of indicators, this approach could be applied to AVNTUSDT in the next session.