Avantis/Tether Market Overview

• AVNT/USDT traded lower by -5.3% over 24 hours, breaking key support levels and triggering bearish momentum.
• Volatility surged post-overnight dip, but volume failed to confirm strength during key price rejection levels.
• RSI entered oversold territory at 29, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal.
• Price tested and rejected at 1.1650–1.1700 resistance multiple times, indicating a consolidation phase.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion in the early AM, confirming heightened uncertainty and mixed order flow.

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.1609 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.1655 on October 5 at the same time. The 24-hour high was 1.1853, and the low was 1.1220. Total traded volume was 20,090,939.7 and notional turnover amounted to ~$23.08 million. The pair has shown mixed behavior, with price failing to hold above 1.1700 and facing bearish momentum on key timeframes.

Structure & Formations

AVNT/USDT displayed a bearish flag pattern during the overnight and early AM hours, with a clear lower trendline acting as resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart at 09:15 ET on October 5 as price opened at 1.1545 and closed at 1.1478. This pattern followed a short-lived bullish reversal attempt, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. A key support level at 1.1650 was tested multiple times, but price failed to break above it, forming a consolidation pattern between 1.1616 and 1.1707. A doji candle at 05:45 ET suggested indecision and potential reversal if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA during a critical sell-off, forming a bearish "death cross." This reinforced the downward momentum observed in the early hours. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA (1.162) sits slightly above the 100-period MA (1.159), while the 200-period MA remains near 1.160. Price currently hovers just above the 50 MA, but the short-term bearish divergence is clear, especially with price failing to close above the 50 MA on multiple attempts.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the overnight sell-off, with the histogram expanding to indicate increased bearish momentum. The RSI dropped to 29 on October 5 at 11:15 ET, signaling oversold conditions. While this can suggest a short-term bounce, the RSI remains in the oversold zone, and divergence between price and RSI is absent, indicating that the bearish trend may not be over. MACD is currently at -0.0008, with a bearish crossover still in place, adding to the caution for short-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight dip, with price plunging below the lower band by as much as 2.3%. This expansion confirmed the volatility spike and uncertainty in market direction. As of the close on October 5, price sits just above the middle band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a temporary pause in the bearish move but not a reversal. A sustained close above the upper band would be needed to signal a bullish breakout, while a retest of the lower band could trigger further selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price declines, particularly around 00:15 ET and 05:00–06:00 ET, confirming the bearish bias. However, volume during the attempted bounce between 09:15 and 10:00 ET was relatively low, suggesting weak conviction. Turnover reached a high of ~$2.78 million during the 02:45 ET 15-minute bar, indicating strong selling pressure. Price and turnover diverged during the 09:15–10:15 ET rally, with volume declining despite a modest price rise, pointing to a lack of follow-through from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.1220 to 1.1853, the 38.2% level at 1.1546 and the 61.8% level at 1.1724 have acted as key psychological and technical levels. Price rejected both levels multiple times during the 24-hour period, forming consolidation patterns and indecisive price action. The 50% retracement level at 1.1537 was briefly tested during the AM hours but failed to hold as bears took control again. These retracement levels may continue to act as support and resistance in the short term, especially if volatility remains high.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a trend-following approach that triggers a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the nearest Fibonacci resistance level (e.g., 1.1724) and a take-profit target set at the 61.8% retracement level (1.1220) or a fixed risk-reward ratio of 1:2. This setup was confirmed during the overnight and early AM session, with the death cross forming as price broke key support and volume surged. A stop-loss above 1.1724 would have limited losses during the consolidation phase and protected gains if the bearish trend continued. This strategy may be more effective during periods of high volatility and clear trend formation, but may struggle during choppy sideways conditions.