Avantis/Tether Market Overview

• AVNTUSDT opened at 1.1802, reached 1.3000, and closed at 1.2027, forming a bearish 24-hour candle.
• Price surged to a high of 1.3000 before retreating sharply, with key support identified around 1.2000–1.2100.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish after 22:00 ET, with RSI overbought conditions resolving into a sell-off.
• Volatility expanded during the breakout to 1.3000 but has since contracted, signaling potential consolidation.
• Notional turnover totaled $250.8M, with significant volume during the 19:45–23:45 ET window confirming trend exhaustion.

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.1802 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03 and closed at 1.2027 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of 1.3000 before retreating to a low of 1.1581, with a total notional turnover of $250.8 million and a 24-hour volume of 60.7 million units. Price action showed a sharp breakout followed by a rapid correction.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance at 1.3000 and 1.2600, breaking through the former but failing to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after the peak, followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes from 22:00 ET onward. A key support cluster formed around 1.2000–1.2100, where price has found temporary stability. A doji at 1.2000 and consolidation into a flag pattern suggest indecision, though the 1.2000 level appears strong.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have crossed bearishly below the price. Daily averages (50/100/200) show mixed signals, with the 50-day line above the 100-day line, but the 200-day line acting as a long-term support at ~1.18. The price closed below the 50-day SMA, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the shorter term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the afternoon of 2025-10-03, confirming the shift in momentum after the 1.3000 high. RSI peaked above 70, entering overbought territory, and has since collapsed into neutral to oversold levels (~30–40), supporting the bearish narrative. Momentum is now slowing, but a reversal could happen if support at 1.2000 holds.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the breakout to 1.3000, with price temporarily overshooting the upper band. The bands have since contracted, indicating a potential pause in directional movement. Price remains inside the bands but near the lower band, suggesting a possible bounce back toward the 1.22–1.24 range over the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 19:45–20:45 ET window, confirming the breakout. However, volume during the sell-off from 1.3000 was moderate, indicating some exhaustion in the bears. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest trade block occurring between 20:00–21:00 ET. A divergence appears between volume and price during the 23:45–00:45 ET consolidation period, suggesting weak conviction on the short side.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 1.3000 high and 1.1581 low define a key 15-minute retracement range. Price has retested the 61.8% level (~1.22) and is currently near the 38.2% level (~1.24). Daily retracements suggest 1.20–1.22 as a probable support cluster, with 1.26–1.28 as resistance if there is a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions when the price breaks above the 1.26–1.28 Fibonacci resistance zone, with a stop-loss placed below 1.2000 and a take-profit at 1.28–1.30. Given the recent failure to hold 1.3000 and the RSI’s oversold levels, the strategy may be adapted to a short-biased framework for the next 24 hours. A reversal from 1.2000 with volume confirmation could validate a bullish scenario, but caution is warranted until the 1.22–1.24 range is cleared with strong momentum.