Avantis/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-29)

• Price declined from 0.7025 to 0.6417 over 24 hours, forming bearish continuation patterns.
• Volatility expanded after 20:30 ET, with volume surging above 950,000 across key breakdowns.
• RSI remains below 40, indicating bearish momentum is intact but not yet overextended.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the 2σ lower band, suggesting potential for oversold bounce.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight 0.638–0.656 as critical support levels for near-term action.

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 0.693 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.6417 by the same time the following day. The price moved within a range of 0.6351 to 0.7025, with a total 24-hour volume of 23,764,853.7 and a notional turnover of $15,376,988. The pair has displayed a clear bearish bias, especially from 19:30 to 20:30 ET, when volume spiked on key sell-throughs.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours have seen multiple bearish continuation patterns, including a bearish engulfing at 19:30 ET and a deep doji at 22:00 ET. Key support levels have formed at 0.645 and 0.638, while resistance remains at 0.660 and 0.670. These levels align with Fibonacci retracements of the recent 0.6351–0.6758 swing, with 61.8% at 0.649 and 38.2% at 0.666. The breakdown below 0.650 at 02:30 ET marked a key pivot, confirming a shift into bearish control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a bearish alignment, with the price currently below both. The 20SMA has crossed under the 50SMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are in a bearish crossover, and the 100DMA is approaching the 50DMA, potentially forming a confluence of bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has shown bearish divergence over the past 12 hours, with the line and signal line both trending lower. The RSI has remained below 40 for most of the day, indicating a lack of immediate oversold conditions. However, a potential bounce is becoming more likely as RSI approaches 30, with a 2–3% pullback possible if the 0.645–0.649 zone holds.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly during the overnight session, with price moving near the lower Bollinger Band. The recent 2.5% range contraction from 03:00 to 05:00 ET has given way to an aggressive expansion. Price sits at the -1.5σ level, suggesting a potential rebound toward the 0.650–0.655 zone is possible in the short term, though bearish pressure remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has remained above 200,000 across most 15-minute intervals, with notable spikes at 02:30 ET (990k), 05:30 ET (456k), and 14:45 ET (727k). Turnover has closely mirrored volume, with no significant divergence observed. The largest volume cluster occurred around 02:30–05:30 ET, coinciding with the breakdown of key support levels. Price and volume are aligned in bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 0.6351–0.6758 swing has defined key retracement levels for the 15-minute and daily charts. The 61.8% (0.649) and 78.6% (0.641) levels have already been tested and failed. Price is currently near the 88.6% level at 0.638, with further support at 0.6351. A break below 0.6351 would confirm a deeper bearish phase, with the next target at 0.620–0.625.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern is a strong candidate for backtesting on AVNTUSDT, given its appearance at 19:30 ET and subsequent price action. A backtest would require precise symbol confirmation (e.g., AVNTUSDT on Binance), a timeframe (15-minute or daily), and an exit rule. A simple strategy could be to enter a short position on pattern confirmation and exit after five bars, or when a bullish engulfing pattern appears. If executed on 15-minute candles with a 5-bar exit rule, this strategy could be tested using the recent 2022–2025 dataset to assess profitability and risk-reward balance.