Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) Market Overview: Bearish Consolidation After Volatile Recovery

• Price traded lower with bearish momentum, closing below 1.14 after a 24-hour high of 1.1505
• Volatility expanded on Thursday morning, but price consolidation suggests weakening upside pressure
• Turnover surged during the 12-hour period, aligning with key swing highs and breakdown levels
• RSI and MACD show bearish divergence, hinting at further downside potential
• Bollinger Bands tightened after midday, signaling a potential breakout or continuation

24-Hour Price Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.1386, reached a high of 1.1505, and closed at 1.1332 following a low of 1.112. The total 24-hour volume was 31,012,032.50 AVNT, with a notional turnover of $34,272,562.89. This represents a bearish close after a volatile 24-hour session marked by key resistance tests.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish engulfing pattern after the 09:30 ET high at 1.1476 and a key 1.1446 low. This was followed by a series of lower highs and a potential three-wave bearish structure from 1.1505 to 1.112. A bearish doji formed at 06:00 ET near 1.1399, indicating indecision at the 1.14 support level. The 1.1305-1.1388 range appears to be forming as a potential near-term support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs converged near 1.135-1.137, with the price currently below both, suggesting bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits around 1.138, with the 200-day SMA at 1.142. Price appears to be weakening as it moves further below the 200-day average, reinforcing the bearish tilt.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after the 06:45 ET high, with the histogram expanding downward, confirming bearish momentum. RSI crossed below 50 and approached 45, signaling weakening bullish conviction. Notably, RSI failed to rise above 50 despite the price recovery from 1.112, indicating a bearish divergence. This could signal further downside ahead, with the next oversold level at 35 offering a potential target.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the morning, with Bollinger Bands widening after the 1.1505 high. Price closed near the lower band at 1.1305-1.135, suggesting bearish bias and potential for a continuation move. A retest of the 1.125 psychological level appears likely if the near-term support at 1.1305 breaks.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 12-hour period, particularly after the 09:00-11:00 ET range, coinciding with key resistance levels around 1.1435-1.1476. Notional turnover exceeded $7M during the 13:15-14:45 ET period, aligning with price breakdowns. However, price failed to hold key resistance levels, suggesting volume was driven by profit-taking rather than bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 1.112-1.1505 swing include 1.1359 (38.2%), 1.1328 (50%), and 1.1305 (61.8%). The current price is approaching the 61.8% level, which appears to be a critical support area. A break below this would likely target the 1.1274 level, followed by the 1.1215 psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the observed bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence as entry triggers, a potential backtest could involve shorting at 1.1365 with a stop-loss above 1.141 and a target at 1.1275. This aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci and the lower Bollinger Band. The MACD histogram's expansion and the volume confirmation during the 12-hour sell-off add to the signal's strength. Historical performance would depend on how often these conditions lead to a continuation of the trend, rather than a reversal.