Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-11

• • • • •
Summary
• Price swung sharply lower in early hours, forming a bearish engulfing pattern below 0.80, with volume spiking to 1.58 million.
• Rebounded on late ET afternoon into 0.68–0.70 range, with volume and momentum improving.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30), but failed to trigger a strong rebound, suggesting exhaustion or indecision.
• Volatility expanded on Bollinger Bands as price dropped, then narrowed during the recovery.
• Recent Fibonacci 61.8% level (~0.64–0.65) appears to be a key near-term support.

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 0.8002 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.8262 and as low as 0.198 before closing at 0.6455 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 62,711,838.77, with a notional turnover of ~$41,175,667.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed a strong bearish phase early in the morning with a massive drop from 0.80 to 0.3899 within 90 minutes, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern. A potential double bottom formed near the 0.64 level in the late afternoon, with a bullish reversal suggesting short-term support. A doji appeared at ~0.58, indicating indecision during the recovery phase. Key support levels appear to be at 0.64 (Fibonacci 61.8%), 0.58 (psychological level), and 0.55. Resistance lies at 0.68 and 0.71.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show that price has spent most of the session below the 50SMA, which is bearish. However, the 20SMA crossed the 50SMA to the upside in the late evening, forming a potential golden cross. Daily timeframes indicate a longer-term bear trend with the 50D, 100D, and 200D lines aligned downward. Price remains below all major daily MAs, but the 15-minute crossover suggests short-term bullish momentum could build.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped sharply to the 28–30 range during the early bearish phase, signaling potential oversold conditions, but failed to reverse above 50, which could indicate bearish exhaustion rather than a bullish reversal. MACD lines remained negative throughout the day, with the histogram narrowing as price rebounded from the 0.64 level. The divergence between price and RSI during the rebound is notable, suggesting the market may not be ready for a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the initial selloff as the price dropped from 0.80 to 0.39 in less than 90 minutes, widening the bands. By late afternoon, volatility had contracted as the price stabilized and bounced between the 0.64 and 0.68 levels. Price currently sits near the middle band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the selloff, with a 15-minute candle reaching 1.58 million at 0.64–0.68, while turnover followed in lockstep. As the price recovered from 0.64, volume continued to rise, suggesting a possible shift in sentiment. However, the volume was not high enough to confirm a strong bullish reversal, indicating buyers are cautious. Price and turnover moved in tandem during the bounce, suggesting the move is backed by real demand rather than short-covering.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels were drawn from the high of 0.8262 to the low of 0.3899. The 0.618 level (~0.64) acted as a strong support, with price bouncing from that level. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the longer-term decline (~0.71) is a key area to watch for a potential reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering long positions on the 15-minute chart when price closes above the 20-period SMA after forming a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., a hammer or inverted hammer) near a Fibonacci 61.8% support level, while confirming volume increases. Stops could be placed just below the recent swing low, and targets could be set at the 50% Fibonacci retracement or above the 10-period SMA. This strategy would aim to capitalize on short-term rebounds in a longer-term bearish trend.