Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-03

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• Price closed at 1.1802, up from 1.1251, forming a bullish reversal pattern late in the session.
• Volatility surged with a 1.1958 high and 1.1434 low, showing sharp intraday swings.
• Turnover hit $5.6M at peak, with volume confirmation supporting the rally after 06:00 ET.
• RSI climbed into overbought territory, while MACD crossed bullish on late-volume spikes.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-04:00 ET, indicating increased market uncertainty and momentum.

At 12:00 ET – 1, Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.1251 and traded between 1.1113 and 1.1958 before closing at 1.1802 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 636807.6 units, while notional turnover amounted to $751,144. The 24-hour period saw strong volatility and late-session bullish momentum, particularly after 06:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a series of bullish reversal patterns late in the session, most notably a hammer and a bullish engulfing pattern around 06:00–08:00 ET. Resistance levels emerged near 1.1958 and 1.1728, while support was observed at 1.1683 and 1.1506. A large doji near 1.1148 suggested indecision during a pullback, potentially forming a key inflection point for the next 24 hours. The market structure displayed a strong recovery from a low of 1.1113 to a high of 1.1958, with a dominant bearish correction in the early part of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bullish crossover during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, aligning with the sharp price rebound. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs were in a bearish alignment, suggesting a long-term downtrend, but the short-term crossover indicates potential for a countertrend rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish after 04:00 ET, with a strong positive divergence appearing as price bottomed at 1.1113 while momentum remained firm. RSI crossed into overbought territory near 75–80 during the late morning, indicating strong upward momentum, although this could suggest a near-term correction if not supported by volume. A bearish RSI divergence was noted earlier in the session during the 00:00–03:00 ET pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened sharply following the 04:00 ET low, signaling increased volatility and uncertainty in price direction. Price spent much of the day inside the bands, suggesting no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. However, the widening bands reflect a potential shift in sentiment and a possible continuation of the bullish move if volume remains supportive.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged after 06:00 ET, with the largest volume spike recorded at 1.1709 and 1.1802. Notional turnover hit a peak of $5.6M during the 04:15–06:45 ET window, confirming the strength of the rally. Divergences in volume were observed during the early session correction, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move and increasing probability of a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligned with 1.1683, which acted as a key support during the early morning. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent swing aligned with 1.1923–1.1789, which became a key level of resistance. Price tested and then moved above both levels, indicating potential for further bullish momentum if the trend holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described is a volatility breakout-based approach that aims to capture sharp intraday moves in AVNTUSDT by entering long positions after a 6-hour consolidation period, provided that price breaks above the 1.17–1.18 range with volume above 500,000 units. This aligns well with today’s 04:00–06:00 ET move, which met the criteria for entry. The strategy would have triggered a long signal at 1.1709–1.1750 with a stop loss placed below 1.1683. Given the current price action and support at 1.1683, this strategy could prove effective in capturing the next leg of the rally, provided volume remains above key levels.