Avalanche Market Overview: AVAXUSD 24-Hour Technical Analysis

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• AVAXUSD declined from $23.78 to $23.44 over 24 hours, forming a bearish consolidation pattern after a sharp 15-minute drop.
• Momentum weakened with RSI hovering near 40 and MACD signaling mixed momentum, suggesting potential range-bound trading.
• Volatility expanded briefly around $23.55–23.61 but faded, with volume concentrated in key turning points.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction, while Fibonacci retracements highlighted 61.8% support near $23.33.

Avalanche (AVAXUSD) opened at $23.78 on 2025-08-29 at 12:00 ET and closed at $23.60 at 12:00 ET on 2025-08-30. The price moved between $23.33 and $23.80, forming a bearish consolidation pattern after a sharp 15-minute drop. Total traded volume was 209.17, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,920.40.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias as AVAXUSD tested support at $23.33 multiple times. A key bearish pattern emerged around 2025-08-29 20:15 ET, where a sharp 15-minute drop from $23.49 to $23.33 formed a bearish engulfing pattern. This was followed by a period of consolidation between $23.33 and $23.55, with a failed rally to $23.7 at 03:30 ET. The price could test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $23.33 again in the next 24 hours, particularly if the support at $23.44 fails.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been closely aligned, indicating a sideways trend with no clear bias. RSI is currently in the neutral zone (around 40), and MACD has been oscillating around the zero line, showing that momentum is neither strong bullish nor bearish. However, a potential divergence between price and RSI suggests a possible reversal could emerge if the 50-period MA at $23.49 is breached.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands have shown a moderate expansion in the morning hours, with price touching the lower band around $23.33 and bouncing back. This indicates a possible oversold condition and suggests that traders may be positioning for a rebound. However, the subsequent consolidation and lack of follow-through above $23.60 may indicate that volatility is likely to remain moderate. A breakout above the upper band at $23.8 could signal a renewed bullish attempt, while a retest of the lower band may trigger further bearish follow-through.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 20:15 ET and 03:30 ET sessions, aligning with key turning points in the price. The high volume during the $23.49–23.33 drop suggests bearish conviction, while the volume during the $23.33–23.55 consolidation was relatively low, indicating indecision. A divergence between volume and price during the 09:15–10:30 ET window may suggest a potential reversal. Investors should monitor for increased volume on a sustained move above $23.60 or below $23.44 for confirmation of a trend resumption.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour swing from $23.78 to $23.33, key levels include the 38.2% at $23.55 and the 61.8% at $23.33. The price has spent most of the 24-hour period consolidating around these levels. A break below $23.44 would likely target the 61.8% support, while a sustained move above $23.66 could test the 38.2% resistance. These levels could serve as dynamic entry or stop-loss points in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential profitability of the observed patterns—such as the bearish engulfing and consolidation structure—an event-based backtest could be conducted using the Head and Shoulders pattern. Given the recent behavior of AVAXUSD, testing this pattern on historical data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-08-30 may provide insight into the reliability of similar formations in triggering bearish or bullish momentum. The backtest would use close prices to detect every Head and Shoulders pattern and evaluate its success rate, including entry, stop-loss, and take-profit parameters. This approach would help quantify the potential edge of such patterns in real-world trading conditions.