Avalanche Faces Bearish Crossroads as Bullish Whispers Emerge Below $20–$25

Avalanche (AVAX) has entered a critical phase as its price nears the $20–$25 range-a historically significant demand zone for the altcoin-amid conflicting signals from technical indicators and diverging price forecasts. The token, which trades at $25 as of late October 2025, has lost 28.7% of its value over the past month, raising questions about whether this correction has further to run or if a rebound is imminent.

Analysts highlight a confluence of bearish signals. AVAX recently broke below a symmetrical triangle pattern, a technical formation often preceding price declines. The Supertrend indicator, a key tool for trend identification, has flipped to a sell signal, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) dropped below the neutral 50.00 threshold, indicating weak capital inflows. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Resistance levels loom large, with clusters between $27.89–$51.88 posing significant hurdles for buyers. The Global In/Out of Money (GIOM) data reveals that 1.33 million addresses bought AVAX between $39.87 and $51.88, creating a formidable supply wall. Should AVAX fail to reclaim these levels, further declines toward $17.33 could materialize.

Despite the bearish technical backdrop, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. Avalanche's decentralized exchange (DEX) volume surged to $34 billion in September 2025, a three-year high, driven by rising demand for its native token. Institutional interest has also intensified, with Skybridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci announcing a digital asset treasury for Avalanche. These developments, coupled with a 0.38% market dominance (up from 0.26% in September), suggest growing utility and liquidity.

Short-term traders are cautiously optimistic. AVAX's recent 20% rebound from intraday lows on October 22 and a $8 million spike in positive net spot flows indicate potential for a near-term rally. Some analysts project a test of $35–$40, with a successful breakout potentially triggering institutional inflows.

The immediate outlook remains bleak. Open Interest in AVAX derivatives has plummeted to a 30-day low of $441 million, reflecting waning bullish sentiment. If AVAX closes below $18.50, a critical support level, the next targets are $16.14 and the year-to-date low of $14.66.

Longer-term forecasts, however, are split. Pessimists cite an overvalued market value-to-realized value (MV) ratio of 1.53, suggesting AVAX is trading above its intrinsic value. By contrast, optimists point to a $250 million ecosystem funding boost and projected DEX volume of $4.2 billion in October as catalysts for a $150 surge by late 2025.

- : If AVAX holds above $20 and breaks the $32.79 resistance, it could test $41.82 and eventually $55.41. A sustained move above $30 would validate a broader bull market.

- : A breakdown below $20 could trigger a cascade to $17.50 and then $15, with further declines to $12 or lower if institutional selling escalates.

Traders are advised to monitor the $27–$25 support zone closely. A rebound here could rekindle bullish momentum, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $41.09. However, caution is warranted given the token's 65% discount to its all-time high and the risk of renewed bearishness if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

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[1] Avalanche (AVAX) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 - 2030 (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/avalanche-avax-price-slides-under-demand-zone/)

[2] Avalanche Price Prediction: 2025, 2026, 2027 - 2030 - Coinpedia (https://coinpedia.org/price-prediction/avalanche-avax-price-prediction/)

[3] Avalanche (AVAX) 2025 Report - Darkex Official (https://academy.darkex.com/market-pulse/avalanche-avax-2025-report/)