Avalanche (AVAX) Nears Bottom of 3.5-Year Downtrend Against Bitcoin (BTC)

Avalanche (AVAX) has been in a descending channel against Bitcoin (BTC) since December 2021, showing a persistent bearish trend. The AVAX/BTC chart reveals a 3.5-year downward trajectory, with the price failing to break out of this technical pattern. However, as the price nears the bottom of the channel, there are signs of a potential upside movement.

A previous pump occurred between October and December 2023. During this period, AVAX surged sharply after reaching the channel’s lower bound. It rallied up to the top of the channel before facing rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Today, AVAX is once again trading near that same lower support area. Market sentiment remains weak, with altcoins in a broadly bearish structure. Yet historical behavior and technical alignment raise expectations of a similar rebound playing out in the coming months.

The AVAX/BTC pair has been in a persistent downward channel for over three years. Starting in late 2021, AVAX has lost ground against BTC within clearly defined upper and lower bounds. Each major price move has adhered to this channel. In late 2023, the token rebounded after hitting the bottom and surged to the top band. This pattern matched a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which served as resistance and triggered a rejection.

This repeating setup has drawn renewed attention as AVAX approaches the same lower range again. Traders view this area as a possible launch zone for what has been dubbed an “Exit Pump.” Such pumps have shown brief yet sharp price recoveries. The last instance pushed AVAX to the upper channel line before the downturn resumed. That structure is now being tracked closely for confirmation of another similar attempt.

Despite AVAX’s positioning, overall crypto market sentiment appears negative. Altcoins are showing poor momentum, and Bitcoin dominance remains elevated across most trading cycles. Analysts note that sentiment alone is not a sufficient indicator. The technical pattern, combined with past behavior, holds more predictive weight. AVAX’s previous move from the bottom of the channel to the top supports this theory.

Bitcoin dominance is also believed to be peaking, which historically has preceded altcoin recoveries. With AVAX sitting at the same technical juncture, optimism grows for at least a short-term rally. The chart illustrates this potential with another projected pump. It shows AVAX bouncing once more to the 0.618 Fibonacci level by 2026 before continuing downward. This forecast remains speculative but consistent with earlier moves.

Price behavior suggests that the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels are pivotal. In both 2023 and now, these act as natural ceiling zones during recoveries. These retracement zones align directly with the descending trendline. When AVAX hits the top band, it faces immediate sell pressure, cutting off gains. This also reflects how resistance remains strong despite bullish attempts.

Should a new exit pump form, traders are watching for rejection signs near those Fibonacci levels again. If history repeats, the bounce will offer a short window of upside before another decline. Technical formations, along with market cycles, remain the guiding tools in this long-standing AVAX downtrend. For now, all eyes remain on the channel’s lower boundary and any emerging reversal signals.