Avalanche (AVAX) Eyes $12-15.50 Recovery as Real-World Asset Tokenization Surges

Avalanche’s tokenized real-world asset (RWA) value surged nearly 950% in 2025, reaching $1.3 billion TVL, despite a 59% decline in AVAX price in Q4 2025. Institutional partnerships, including BlackRock’s $500 million USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund and FIS’s tokenized loan platform, are key drivers of this growth. The VanEck AVAX ETF attracted $1.24 million in inflows by the end of January 2026, signaling growing institutional interest.

Avalanche’s tokenized real-world asset value has grown significantly in 2025. Despite a sharp decline in AVAX price, the platform’s TVL in RWA reached $1.3 billion, driven by major institutional partnerships. This surge reflects the platform’s growing role in bridging traditional finance with blockchain technology.

Avalanche’s tokenized asset growth is supported by partnerships with financial institutions, including BlackRock and FIS. BlackRock’s digital liquidity fund and FIS’s collaboration with Intain to tokenize $6 billion in loans are boosting Avalanche’s TVL. These developments are expected to reinforce AVAX’s long-term utility and demand.

Avalanche’s AVAX token is currently trading in oversold territory at $9.56. Analysts project a potential rebound to $12–$15.50 if key support levels hold. Institutional validation and RWA tokenization are seen as long-term drivers for the token. Whale activity and ETF inflows also suggest growing market confidence.

What is driving Avalanche's real-world asset tokenization growth?

Avalanche’s real-world asset tokenization has surged due to institutional partnerships and increased adoption of tokenized loans. BlackRock and FIS have been instrumental in expanding the platform’s TVL, with FIS enabling 2,000 U.S. banks to securitize loans on Avalanche. These initiatives have helped Avalanche become a leading platform for tokenizing traditional financial instruments.

The platform’s TVL in RWA rose by 68.6% in Q4 2025, with tokenized loans and stablecoin adoption playing a major role. Tether’s USDT became the dominant stablecoin on Avalanche, representing 42.3% of the total supply by year-end 2025. This trend highlights Avalanche’s appeal to institutions seeking to integrate blockchain technology with conventional financial products.

What are the key factors for AVAX’s potential recovery?

Avalanche’s AVAX token is currently in oversold territory, with a price of $9.56 and an RSI of 26.17. Analysts predict a potential rebound to $12–$15.50 if key resistance levels are reclaimed. Institutional participation, including Sumitomo Corporation joining the validator network, is enhancing the platform’s credibility.

Whale activity on AVAX has surged near the $10 support zone, suggesting growing accumulation by large investors. This pattern mirrors similar behavior observed in 2021 and indicates a potential rebound. The VanEck AVAX ETF has also attracted inflows, providing a structural bid for the token amid weak market conditions.

A sustained move above $10.96 is needed to confirm a reversal in AVAX’s price action. If this level is breached, it could trigger a long-term recovery to $12–$15.50. However, caution is advised, as a drop below $9.07 support could trigger a further decline to $8.79.

What are the risks to AVAX’s growth and adoption?

Despite growing institutional interest and RWA tokenization, Avalanche faces several risks to its long-term growth. The token’s price remains below its 20-day SMA at $11.45, and the MACD histogram remains bearish. Market volatility and Bitcoin’s performance could also impact AVAX’s trajectory, with a loss of the $10 level potentially sending the token to $8.79.

Competition from platforms like Solana poses a risk to Avalanche’s momentum. These platforms are also advancing in RWA tokenization and may attract institutional capital. To maintain its position, Avalanche must continue accelerating its adoption and expanding its ecosystem through new partnerships and applications.

Additionally, regulatory developments could impact Avalanche’s growth. The Avalanche Policy Coalition has launched an advisory council to shape global digital asset regulations, focusing on token classification, intermediary definitions, and internet access. These efforts aim to ensure regulatory clarity and promote innovation, but evolving regulations could introduce uncertainties for the platform.

The platform’s ability to sustain its TVL growth and attract further institutional capital will be crucial to its long-term success. If subnet adoption continues to accelerate and more organizations launch application-specific blockchains on Avalanche, the demand for AVAX could increase exponentially. This would create a strong fundamental price floor and support the token’s long-term trajectory.