Avalanche (AVAX) Drops 2.34% Amid Bearish Trend

Avalanche (AVAX) is currently experiencing significant downward pressure, with its price hovering around $18.00, marking a 2.34% decline for the day. This recent drop is part of a broader bearish trend that began in late May, with the price falling from the $24 zone to its current levels. The Heikin Ashi chart, which smoothens price noise, shows a strong sequence of red candles with minimal upper wicks, confirming persistent bearish momentum.

Support levels are crucial in assessing downside risk. Based on recent price action and historical demand zones, AVAX price shows the following levels: immediate support at $17.73, next major support at $15.20, critical support at $13.40, and crash-level support at $8.00. If AVAX price loses the $17.73 level decisively, a measured move suggests at least a $2.50 drop toward $15.20, which is a -13.8% correction from current levels. Should that break, the next 15–20% drop could take Avalanche price near $13, and that opens the door to the dreaded $5 long-tail scenario, especially if Bitcoin corrects sharply or macro risk escalates.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 32.20, which is near the oversold boundary of 30. This suggests bearish exhaustion is near, but not confirmed yet. More importantly, RSI has been in a sustained downtrend, consistently printing lower highs and lower lows, indicating weakening buyer confidence. The RSI moving average is above the RSI line, confirming downtrend momentum. In short, there’s no bullish divergence yet, and Avalanche price is not ready to bounce meaningfully.

A crash to $5 from the current $18 price represents a -72% decline. For that to happen, we would need a macro crypto collapse, such as Bitcoin falling below $45,000 and Ethereum losing $3,000 support, AVAX-specific news, such as a DeFi protocol hack on Avalanche or developer exit, or market-wide panic selling triggered by regulation, black swan events, or recession signals. Using Fibonacci extension from the $24 high to $13.40 support, the 1.618 extension is $7.50, and the 2.618 extension is $4.80. So, technically, $5 is within reach only if price freefalls beyond all supports, and sentiment completely collapses.

Not all is doom and gloom. If AVAX price holds $17.73 and closes a strong green candle with volume, a short-term bounce toward $20 is possible. A clear break above $20 would invalidate the bear trend and could reinitiate a climb back toward $22–24. But for now, momentum is clearly against the bulls. Until a higher low and RSI reversal occur, any bounce is likely to be short-lived.

Yes — cautiously. AVAX price is walking a tightrope. It hasn’t crashed yet, but if $17 breaks on volume, the next stop is likely between $15 and $13. While a move to $5 is not imminent, it is within the realm of possibility if market conditions deteriorate further. Key levels to watch are $17.73, $15.20, $13.40, and $8.00. For now, sit tight and watch for confirmation signals. Smart traders wait for volume, not hope.