Avalanche (AVAX) at Critical Juncture: Breakout to $220 or $20 Plunge?

Avalanche (AVAX) has shown emerging bullish signals across multiple technical analyses, with traders and analysts closely monitoring key price levels and patterns that could catalyze a significant upward move. The cryptocurrency, currently trading near $24–$35, is positioned at critical junctures in its multi-year consolidation phase, with several studies highlighting potential breakouts to $40–$220. These developments coincide with institutional interest and on-chain activity that suggest growing confidence in the asset's long-term trajectory.

Technical indicators point to a symmetrical triangle pattern forming since 2021, with AVAX oscillating between ascending support and descending resistance lines. The pattern, now nearing its apex, has withstood multiple failed breakouts in 2022–2024, preserving its validity. A sustained close above the $23 resistance line could trigger a rally toward $150–$220, according to one analysis. Similarly, a consolidation near $24 has drawn attention, with analysts noting that a breakout above $28 could push the price to $40 in the short term. A separate study on the daily chart identifies $26.50 as a key resistance level, with repeated rejections suggesting concentrated selling pressure.

Institutional activity has further bolstered AVAX's bullish narrative. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci recently joined as a strategic advisor to AVAX One, a $550 million Avalanche-focused treasury initiative. This move, alongside a $300 million tokenized hedge fund, underscores growing institutional adoption. Additionally, the Avalanche Foundation's plans to establish U.S.-based crypto treasury companies aim to accumulate AVAX, signaling long-term support. On-chain data also reveals net inflows of $3.26 million in late September, indicating renewed accumulation.

Analysts have outlined multiple price targets based on technical structures. A cup-and-handle pattern near $36–$37.5 suggests a potential move to $41.5–$50 if the resistance is breached. Elliott Wave analysis identifies Wave (4) consolidation around $28–$29, with a break above $31–$32 potentially unlocking $45–$50 targets. Conversely, a failure to hold above $25 could expose $22–$20 support levels. The 20-day EMA at $30.43 and ascending channel structure further reinforce the bullish case, with $37–$40 as critical next hurdles.

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, though volume and momentum indicators will be key confirmers. A breakout above $23 or $28 must coincide with rising on-chain volume to absorb selling pressure at resistance zones. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 37.54 in late November suggests bearish momentum is waning. Institutional inflows and tokenization momentum-driven by partnerships with firms like Apollo and JPMorgan-add fundamental support to the price action.

The coming weeks will test AVAX's ability to sustain its upward trajectory. A successful breakout above $23 or $28 could validate the triangle pattern and ignite a rally toward $150–$220 or $40–$50, respectively. Conversely, a breakdown below key support levels could trigger a retest of $20–$16. With institutional backing, on-chain accumulation, and favorable technical structures aligning, Avalanche's next move could reshape its position in the altcoin landscape.

Source: [1] Cryptonewsland (https://cryptonewsland.com/avax-3-year-and-eyes-breakout-220-in-2025/) [2] Blockonomi (https://blockonomi.com/avax-price-analysis-avalanche-breakout-signals-point-to-this-next-target/) [3] TheCoinRepublic (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2024/11/03/avax-consolidates-near-24-analysts-eye-potential-breakout-to-40/) [4] Blocknews (https://blocknews.com/avalanche-avax-technical-analysis-key-support-at-32-resistance-at-37/) [5] Cryptonewsland (https://cryptonewsland.com/avax-stuck-between-support-and-26-resistance-a/) [6] Blockchaintimes (https://blockchaintimes.news/2025/09/23/avax-price-prediction-bulls-target-50-with-treasury-inflows-and-tokenization-momentum/) [7] Blocknews (https://blocknews.com/avax-price-prediction-2025-is-wave-5-setting-up-for-50/) [8] Coinpedia (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/avalanche-avax-attempting-a-bullish-move-can-it-make-it-to-50-this-month/)