Autodesk Soars 8.76% on Earnings Surge and AI-Driven Billings Boom

Summary
• Autodesk (ADSK) surges 8.76% to $313.785, hitting an intraday high of $326.45.
• Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.62 and $1.76B revenue beat estimates, with billings up 36% to $1.68B.
• Full-year guidance raised across EPS, revenue, and billings, driven by AI data center demand.
•
Autodesk’s stock is surging on a blockbuster earnings report and bullish guidance, fueled by surging demand for AI-driven design software. The stock’s 8.76% rally reflects investor confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with billings and revenue growth outpacing expectations. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $326.62 and critical support at $289.94.

AI-Driven Billings and Raised Guidance Fuel Autodesk's Rally
Autodesk’s 8.76% surge is directly tied to its Q2 results, which handily exceeded expectations. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.62 and revenue of $1.76 billion, with billings jumping 36% to $1.68 billion. CFO Janesh Moorjani highlighted sustained investment in data centers and infrastructure, which are offsetting commercial sector softness. The full-year guidance upgrade—now projecting $9.80–$9.98 EPS and $7.025–$7.075 billion revenue—signals robust demand for its AECO and AutoCAD software in AI-driven infrastructure projects. This earnings-driven optimism has propelled the stock to its highest levels in months.

Application Software Sector Mixed as PTC Dips 0.77%
While Autodesk leads the charge, the broader Application Software sector remains mixed. PTC (PTC), a sector leader, fell 0.77% despite Autodesk’s rally, highlighting divergent performance within the space. Autodesk’s AI-focused growth narrative contrasts with PTC’s more traditional industrial software model, underscoring the market’s preference for AI-driven innovation. The sector’s lack of a unified trend suggests Autodesk’s move is stock-specific rather than sector-wide.

Options and ETF Plays for Autodesk’s Volatile Rally
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $290.14 (below), RSI: 47.42 (neutral), MACD: -3.13 (bearish), Bollinger Bands: $277.11–$302.77 (below price).
• Key Levels: Short-term support at $289.94 (200-day MA), resistance at $326.62 (52-week high).
•
Autodesk’s rally has created a high-volatility environment, with options like ADSK20250905C315 and ADSK20250905C320 offering compelling leverage. These contracts balance moderate delta with strong gamma and theta, ideal for a continuation of the bullish trend. For ETF exposure, XLK (NMS:XLK) remains a core play for the tech sector, though no leveraged ETFs are currently available for ADSK.
• ADSK20250905C315 (Call, $315 strike, 9/5 expiry):
- IV: 21.61% (moderate), Leverage: 76.80%, Delta: 0.5128 (moderate), Theta: -1.0812 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0396 (high sensitivity).
- Turnover: 72,550 (liquid).
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make it ideal for a continuation of the rally. If ADSK closes above $315, this option could see exponential gains.
• ADSK20250905C320 (Call, $320 strike, 9/5 expiry):
- IV: 22.30% (moderate), Leverage: 143.12%, Delta: 0.3282 (moderate), Theta: -0.7684 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0348 (high sensitivity).
- Why it stands out: Strong leverage and liquidity make it a top pick for aggressive bulls. A 5% upside to $329.42 would yield a 43% payoff on this contract.
• Aggressive bulls should target $326.62 (52-week high) as a critical breakout level. A close above this could trigger a retest of $330, with ADSK20250905C320 as the primary leveraged play.

Backtest Autodesk Stock Performance
The backtest is complete. Key takeaway: buying Autodesk immediately after a ≥ 9 % intraday pop and holding for five sessions has not been a profitable pattern historically—the trade has tended to give back those sharp gains rather than build on them.You can inspect the detailed statistics, trade log and equity curve below.Feel free to explore the visual output, and let me know if you’d like to tweak any parameters—such as using the close-to-close jump instead of intraday high, altering the holding period, or adding stop-loss / take-profit filters.

Autodesk’s AI-Driven Rally: Secure Gains or Ride the Wave?
Autodesk’s 8.76% surge is a testament to its AI-driven growth narrative, with billings and revenue growth outpacing expectations. While the stock remains below its 52-week high of $326.62, the technical setup suggests a continuation of the rally if key resistance is breached. Investors should monitor the $326.62 level for a potential breakout and watch for a pullback to $289.94 (200-day MA) as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, sector leader PTC’s 0.77% decline highlights the importance of AI differentiation in the space. For those seeking leverage, ADSK20250905C320 offers a high-reward path if the AI infrastructure boom continues.