Autodesk Surges 5.5%—Is This the End of Its Acquisition Drama?

• Autodesk (ADSK) jumps 5.45% to $295.68, erasing 2025 losses amid acquisition rumors
• Shares surge after denying PTC acquisition talks, citing focus on 'tuck-in acquisitions'
• RSI at oversold 36.44, testing lower Bollinger Band (283.21) after 52W high pullback
• Sector leader Microsoft (MSFT) slips 0.07%, contrasting with Autodesk's breakout

Today’s rally marks a sharp reversal from last week’s PTC-driven slump, with traders now pricing in strategic clarity. The stock’s 5.5% surge since Monday’s open highlights investor relief over M&A uncertainty, though technicals suggest caution near $300 resistance.

PTC Deal Nixed Sparks Strategic Clarity Rally
Autodesk’s surge stems directly from its regulatory filing dismissing PTC acquisition talks. Bloomberg reported activist investor Starboard Value’s opposition and financial constraints as key factors, while Autodesk emphasized its cloud/AI focus and share buybacks. This denial resolved a week of volatility, with shares rebounding 6% from Friday’s lows. The move aligns with Starboard’s push for cost discipline, as noted in its regulatory filings. Technical buyers piled in as RSI exited oversold territory, confirming short-covering momentum.

Bulls Target $300—Key Calls to Capture Rally Momentum
Technical Setup:
• 200-day MA: 288.15 (support) | 50-day MA: 300.76 (resistance)
• RSI: 36.44 (oversold bounce confirmed)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at 321.69, Middle at 302.45 (critical resistance)

Traders should watch $297.50 (July 18 call cluster) as pivot. Short-term bullish bias exists but $302.50 (upper band) poses overhead pressure. For options exposure, focus on these contracts:

ADSK20250718C295: Strike $295, expires July 18
- Delta: 0.52 (moderate bullish exposure)
- Theta: -1.72 (time decay manageable)
- Gamma: 0.04 (price-sensitive)
- Leverage: 71.13% (high reward/risk)
- Why: Strikes at current price, ideal for capturing $300+ upside. Payoff at $305 yields 148% return.

ADSK20250718C290: Strike $290, expires July 18
- Delta: 0.69 (aggressive bullish)
- Theta: -2.14 (faster time decay)
- Gamma: 0.03 (stable delta response)
- Leverage: 38.84% (balanced risk)
- Why: Offers 270%+ gains if $300 breaks. Strong volume (156k turnover) ensures liquidity.

Aggressive plays: Layer into $295 calls if $302 resistance holds. Short $300 puts as insurance against a $290 pullback.

Backtest Autodesk Stock Performance
The backtest of Autodesk (ADSK) performance after a 5% intraday surge indicates mixed results. While the stock showed a positive return in the short term, the overall win rate and returns were modest.

Autodesk’s Rally Faces $300 Crucible—What’s Next for Bulls?
The $300 psychological barrier and July 18 $302.50 resistance zone will define this move’s longevity. While today’s rally signals strategic clarity, Microsoft’s sector-leading slump (-0.07%) underscores broader tech caution. Bulls must push through $302.45 (upper Bollinger) to sustain gains; failure risks a retreat toward $288.15 (200-day MA). Investors should monitor Starboard’s board nomination progress and cloud/AI product updates. Action item: Fade rallies above $305 until earnings confirm execution of their new strategy.