Autodesk Shares Climb 9.09% Amid Bullish Technical Signals and Overbought Warnings

Candlestick Theory

Autodesk (ADSK) has experienced a sharp 9.09% rally in the most recent session, extending a three-day 11.42% surge. This suggests strong bullish momentum, with the price forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Key support levels appear to congregate near the 285–290 range, where previous pullbacks found buying interest, while resistance is forming at the recent peak of $314.7. A breakdown below the 285 level could trigger further short-term correction, while a sustained close above $314.7 may indicate a continuation of the upward trend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $295–300) is currently trending upward and aligns with the 100-day MA ($297–302), suggesting a medium-term bullish bias. However, the 200-day MA ($287–292) lags behind, creating a potential divergence. If the price sustains above the 50-day MA, it strengthens the case for a golden cross scenario, indicating a stronger uptrend. Conversely, a close below the 100-day MA could signal weakening momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows narrowing bearish divergence as the price rises, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator, however, indicates overbought conditions (K > 80, D > 70), with a potential sell signal if the K line drops below D. This confluence of MACD strength and KDJ overbought levels highlights a possible near-term reversal risk, though volume trends may validate or invalidate this signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band ($314.7). This suggests a breakout phase, but also raises the risk of a pullback toward the mid-band ($295–300) as the bands contract. The lower band at $280–285 remains a critical support area; a test here could confirm the continuation of the current trend.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, particularly on the 9.09% up session, validating the strength of the move. However, if volume begins to wane on further gains, it may signal weakening conviction. The recent volume spike aligns with the price break above the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing the validity of the bullish breakout.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI is currently above 70, indicating overbought conditions. While this suggests a potential correction, the RSI has not yet formed a bearish failure swing, leaving room for the trend to continue. A drop below 60 would confirm a shift in momentum, but the recent sharp rise implies caution for near-term traders.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent low ($280) and high ($314.7), key retracement levels are at $296.5 (38.2%), $292.5 (50%), and $288.5 (61.8%). A pullback to the 50% level could test the sustainability of the current rally, while a break below 61.8% may indicate deeper weakness.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy uses RSI overbought conditions (RSI > 70) as a sell signal, with a one-day holding period. Given Autodesk’s current RSI above 70, this would trigger an exit at the next day’s open. While this aligns with the KDJ overbought warning and potential Bollinger Band contraction, the confluence of strong moving averages and volume suggests the trend may persist. A backtest would need to evaluate whether exiting at the next day’s open captures short-term gains or misses a continuation of the rally. Adjustments to the RSI threshold or holding period could improve performance in a trending market.