Autodesk (ADSK) Surges 3.25% on Q3 Earnings Beat and AI-Driven Growth Optimism

Summary
• Autodesk (ADSK) shares trade at $303.99, up 3.25% from $294.43
• Q3 revenue of $1.85B beats estimates, with full-year guidance raised to $7.15B–$7.17B
• CEO highlights AI integration in Fusion and Autodesk Construction Cloud
• Options chain sees heavy volume in mid-strike calls (e.g., 305C, 310C) as bulls bet on momentum

Autodesk’s stock surged 3.25% in volatile intraday trading, driven by a Q3 earnings beat and upgraded guidance. The company’s AI-driven product roadmap, including Fusion and Autodesk Construction Cloud, has reignited investor confidence. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $329.09, technical indicators and options activity suggest a pivotal moment for the stock.

Q3 Earnings Beat and AI-Driven Product Roadmap Ignite Bullish Sentiment
Autodesk’s 3.25% rally stems from a Q3 revenue beat of $1.85B (18% YoY) and a full-year revenue guidance raise to $7.15B–$7.17B. The company’s AI integration in Fusion and Autodesk Construction Cloud, coupled with strong customer adoption of cloud-based platforms, has positioned it as a leader in enterprise software transformation. Analysts at Robert W. Baird and Morgan Stanley raised price targets to $367 and $385, respectively, citing long-term AI monetization potential. The stock’s intraday high of $319.99 reflects optimism around its ability to capture incremental value through machine-based execution and outcomes.

Options and ETF Plays for a Volatility-Driven Bull Case
• 200-day MA: $292.68 (below current price)
• RSI: 42.3 (neutral to oversold)
• MACD: -4.42 (bearish divergence), Signal: -4.20, Histogram: -0.22
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $306.32, Middle $296.65, Lower $286.98
• 30D Support: $297.05–$297.58, 200D Support: $296.89–$298.65

Autodesk’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias amid a long-term consolidation phase. The stock is trading near its 200-day MA and within the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a breakout. RSI at 42.3 suggests oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram’s negative divergence hints at a possible reversal. For leveraged exposure, consider XSW (Software Select Sector SPDR ETF) if the sector aligns with broader tech momentum. However, the options chain offers more targeted opportunities.

Top Option 1: ADSK20251205C305
• Code: ADSK20251205C305
• Type: Call
• Strike: $305
• Expiration: 2025-12-05
• IV: 27.86% (moderate)
• LVR: 63.64% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.4596 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.8164 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0284 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 65,590 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($319.19): $14.19/share
• IV: Implied volatility suggests moderate risk/reward balance
• LVR: High leverage amplifies gains if the stock breaks above $305
• Delta: Moderate delta ensures participation in a sustained rally
• Theta: High theta indicates time decay is a risk, favoring a quick move
• Gamma: Strong gamma means the option becomes more responsive to price swings
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit

Top Option 2: ADSK20251205C310
• Code: ADSK20251205C310
• Type: Call
• Strike: $310
• Expiration: 2025-12-05
• IV: 27.28% (moderate)
• LVR: 108.57% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.3211 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.6238 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0262 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 21,215 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($319.19): $9.19/share
• IV: Implied volatility suggests moderate risk/reward balance
• LVR: High leverage amplifies gains if the stock breaks above $310
• Delta: Moderate delta ensures participation in a sustained rally
• Theta: High theta indicates time decay is a risk, favoring a quick move
• Gamma: Strong gamma means the option becomes more responsive to price swings
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit

Aggressive bulls should consider ADSK20251205C305 for a 5% upside scenario, while ADSK20251205C310 offers higher leverage for a breakout above $310. Both contracts balance liquidity and technical strength, ideal for a short-term bullish trade.

Backtest Autodesk Stock Performance
Below is the event-study you requested. Key implementation choices (auto-completed for you):1. “3 % intraday surge” was interpreted as a daily close that finished at least +3 % above the previous day’s close. This is the most data-robust definition available in daily OHLC files and is the standard proxy in academic event studies of single-day price shocks. 2. Analysis window: 30 trading days post-event (industry convention). 3. Sample covers 2022-01-03 through 2025-11-25 (latest available close). 4. Total qualifying events found: 57.Headline takeaway:• On average, Autodesk’s share price does not exhibit a statistically significant follow-through after a +3 % close-to-close jump. Cumulative average returns drift mildly positive (≈+1.5 %) by day 18, but fade thereafter and never exceed the benchmark with statistical significance. • Win-rate hovers around 50 %, indicating near-coin-flip odds of positive returns after the surge. • Practical implication: a mechanical “buy-the-+3 %-close” tactic would not have produced a persistent edge over holding the stock passively during the period examined.You can explore the full interactive report below.Feel free to drill into any specific horizon or export the event list if you’d like to refine the strategy (e.g., adding volume or technical filters).

Bullish Momentum Intact—Watch $305–$310 Breakouts for Next Move
Autodesk’s Q3 earnings beat and AI-driven product roadmap have reignited bullish momentum, with the stock trading near its 52-week high. Technicals and options activity suggest a short-term breakout scenario, particularly if the stock clears $305–$310. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA ($292.68) and RSI (42.3) for confirmation of a sustained rally. The sector leader, DSY (Big Tree Cloud), surged 4.92% today, signaling broader tech-sector strength. For a high-conviction trade, target ADSK20251205C305 if the stock breaks above $305, or ADSK20251205C310 for a sharper move. Watch for a breakdown below $297.05 support to trigger a reevaluation of the bullish case.