Australian dollar hits one-month low, down 0.7% at $0.64065.

Australian dollar hits one-month low, down 0.7% at $0.64065.

The Australian dollar (AUD) has reached a one-month low, depreciating by 0.7% to trade at $0.64065 against the US dollar (USD) on June 19, 2025. This decline follows mixed employment data released by Australia and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Australia's employment change surprisingly declined by 2.5K in May, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, as expected. This data has contributed to the AUD's depreciation, as investors are cautious about the economic outlook [3].

Furthermore, the Australian dollar is influenced by geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating tensions in the Middle East. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading higher at around 99.00. The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5% in June, as widely expected, and any rate cuts will be contingent on further improvement in labor and inflation data [3].

The Australian dollar is expected to trade at 0.59 by the end of this quarter and at 0.56 in 12 months' time, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations [1]. Despite the recent decline, the AUD remains supported by positive trade news, such as the reduction of tariff rates by the US on imports from major economies [1].

The AUD/NZD (Australian Dollar vs. New Zealand Dollar) has also been influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy path and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) expected rate cuts. Bank of America (BofA) has issued a bearish outlook on the AUD/NZD, suggesting that the Australian dollar may weaken against the New Zealand dollar due to the rate differential forecasts [2].

In conclusion, the Australian dollar's recent depreciation can be attributed to mixed employment data, geopolitical risks, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Investors should closely monitor these factors and the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy path for further developments in the Australian dollar's exchange rate.

References:
[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/currency
[2] https://www.investing.com/currencies/aud-nzd
[3] https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-losses-following-labor-data-eyes-on-middle-east-202506190216