Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price surged on a breakout above 0.0362, confirming resistance with a 2.7% increase.
• High volume of 11.1 million AUDIOS was recorded near the daily high, indicating strong participation.
• RSI edged into overbought territory at 69, with momentum slowing at upper Bollinger Band.

Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) opened at 0.0344 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.0383, and closed at 0.0379 by 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume reached 11,138,175 AUDIOS, translating to a notional turnover of approximately $418,800. The asset displayed a bullish breakout and strong volume clustering near 0.0376 and 0.0381.

Key structure on the 15-minute chart emerged with a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2025-11-06 19:00–21:00 session. Resistance was tested at 0.0376, with a confirmed breakout above 0.0376 on 2025-11-07. The 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA, forming a golden cross on intraday data. However, the 200-period daily EMA remains above the current close, suggesting medium-term bearish pressure could resurface. The MACD turned positive with a narrowing histogram, indicating fading momentum. RSI surged to 69, signaling potential overbought conditions and a possible pullback.

Bollinger Bands highlighted increasing volatility, with price reaching the upper band at 0.0381. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.0344–0.0383 move is at 0.0368, currently acting as dynamic support. The price remains above the 20-period moving average, suggesting short-term bullish bias. Volume was concentrated between 0.0365 and 0.0381, aligning with the breakout range. Notional turnover spiked during the 17:00–19:00 ET window, suggesting significant accumulation or distribution occurred.

The 50-period moving average (0.0361) now appears to be a key psychological level. If the price closes below this, it could invalidate the recent bullish momentum. A retest of the 0.0376–0.0381 range may occur, offering an opportunity to confirm the breakout. However, the broader trend remains mixed, and any move below 0.0365 would heighten bearish concerns. Investors should closely monitor the 0.0365–0.0370 range for directional clues in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest strategy integrates multiple technical elements, including bullish candlestick patterns and dynamic resistance levels. A “bullish engulfing” pattern was observed on the 15-minute chart, followed by a breakout above key intraday resistance levels. To operationalize this, the strategy would require defining resistance as the highest close over the previous N bars (e.g., 5–10 bars) and treating the breakout as a valid entry if it occurs within three bars of the engulfing pattern. For the exit, “next resistance” could be defined as the next pivot high or a 3% price level above the entry.

To implement the strategy accurately, additional parameters are required:
- Ticker: BINANCE:AUDIOUSDT, daily or 15-minute timeframe?
- Resistance detection: Use highest close over N bars or swing high detector?
- Exit: Defined as next pivot high or first 3% gain above entry?
- Risk controls: Stop-loss (e.g., 2% below entry) and take-profit (e.g., 5% above entry)?

Once parameters are confirmed, I will backtest the strategy from 2022-01-01 to today, using Binance data, and deliver a full performance dashboard, including win rate, Sharpe ratio, drawdowns, and equity curve.