AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical and Macroeconomic Factors Shaping Near-Term Consolidation at 0.6660

The AUD/USD pair has entered a critical phase of consolidation near the 0.6660 level in late November 2025, reflecting a tug-of-war between technical indicators and macroeconomic dynamics. Traders and investors are closely monitoring whether this level will act as a catalyst for a bullish continuation or a precursor to a deeper correction. Below, we dissect the interplay of technical and macroeconomic factors shaping this pivotal juncture.

Technical Analysis: A Mixed Signal at 0.6660

The AUD/USD pair has stabilized around 0.6660 after a three-week rally that pushed it to a three-month high of 0.6686, with key technical indicators offering conflicting signals. On the bullish side, the price remains above a rising 20-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6588, reinforcing a short-term upward bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67 underscores strong momentum, though its proximity to overbought territory (70) suggests caution according to analysis.

However, bearish risks persist. A potential head-and-shoulders pattern has emerged, with a breakdown below the 50 EMA (currently at 0.6640) threatening to target the 0.6350 support level as market data shows. Meanwhile, the pair's inability to sustain above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) cluster-a key technical hurdle-has dampened optimism about a sustained breakout according to technical analysis. Traders are advised to watch for a decisive close below 0.6588, which could trigger a corrective phase toward 0.6551, the November 14 high according to price action.

Macroeconomic Drivers: Divergent Policy Paths and Labor Market Volatility

The AUD/USD pair's near-term trajectory is also influenced by divergent monetary policy trajectories and labor market data from Australia and the United States.

Australia's Resilience and Risks:
Australia's economy has shown resilience, with unemployment dropping to 4.3% and robust job growth in October 2025 according to market reports. However, recent labor market data revealed a surprise loss of 21.3K jobs in November, casting doubt on the sustainability of this momentum according to economic analysis. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its 3.60% interest rate, with hawkish rhetoric reinforcing the AUD's appeal as per market commentary. A forthcoming CPI report, projected to show a slight rise to 3.6% in October, could further bolster the RBA's cautious stance according to economic forecasts.

U.S. Dollar Weakness and Policy Uncertainty:
The U.S. Dollar (USD) faces headwinds from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025, driven by slowing hiring and disinflationary trends in the Core PCE index according to market analysis. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded near a seven-week low of 98.13, reflecting broader dollar weakness according to currency data. Compounding this, the U.S. government shutdown-now in its sixth week-has begun to erode Q4 GDP growth estimates by approximately 0.4 percentage points, signaling structural vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy according to economic analysis.

Balancing the Outlook: Key Scenarios for Traders

The AUD/USD pair's consolidation at 0.6660 hinges on two critical factors:
1. Technical Breakouts or Breakdowns: A sustained move above 0.6686 could reignite bullish momentum, while a close below 0.6588 may invite a test of 0.6350 according to price analysis.
2. Macroeconomic Catalysts: Upcoming RBA and Fed policy decisions, alongside Australia's CPI data, will likely dictate the pair's direction. A hawkish RBA versus a dovish Fed could amplify AUD gains, but a weaker-than-expected Australian CPI or stronger U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data could reverse this dynamic according to economic forecasts.

Conclusion

The AUD/USD pair's near-term consolidation at 0.6660 reflects a delicate balance between technical resilience and macroeconomic uncertainty. While bullish momentum remains intact, traders must remain vigilant to bearish risks, particularly a breakdown below key moving averages or a divergence in Australia's inflation data. As the RBA and Fed prepare to unveil their policy stances, the AUD/USD cross is poised for a pivotal test of its ability to capitalize on divergent monetary trajectories.