Atlassian Stock Extends Slide With 5.43% Three-Day Loss Amid Bearish Technicals

Atlassian (TEAM) concluded the most recent session at $189.45, reflecting a decline of 3.41% and marking a three-day losing streak amounting to a 5.43% drop. This recent weakness forms the immediate context for the technical assessment derived from approximately one year of historical price and volume data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action for Atlassian displays concerning bearish signals. The latest sessions have formed consecutive lower highs and lower lows, with the most recent candle closing near its low, indicating persistent selling pressure. Significant support emerges around the $188-$190 zone, representing the low of the latest session and an area preceding the sharp rebound observed on May 12th. Resistance is apparent near $201-$202 (June 17th high, current location of the 50-day MA) and more strongly around $215-$220, the peak established in early June. A breakdown below $188 could accelerate losses, targeting the May swing lows near $179-181. Reversals like bullish engulfing patterns would be needed to signal potential exhaustion near support.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure depicts a weakening trend. The current price sits below all key EMAs: the 50-day EMA (~$201.2), 100-day EMA (~$208.5), and 200-day EMA (~$212.8). This configuration, known as a bearish "stack," confirms a downtrend across short, medium, and long-term perspectives. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA has recently crossed below both the 100-day and 200-day EMAs (a "death cross"), adding significant technical weight to the bearish outlook. Regaining the 50-day EMA would be the initial step towards stabilizing the trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) remains entrenched in negative territory, with its signal line below zero and the MACD histogram showing steady bearish momentum. While deeply negative, no bullish crossover divergence is yet evident. The KDJ oscillator (typically 14 periods) also signals weakness. Recent data places the K and D lines below 50, trending downwards, with the J line potentially nearing oversold territory (<20). While this KDJ positioning suggests the potential for a short-term bounce due to oversold conditions, the prevailing bearish MACD and strong overall downtrend urge caution against premature reversal calls. Strong volume on down days further confirms bearish momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20,2) show notable expansion over the past few sessions, particularly on June 11th and June 20th, reflecting heightened downside volatility within the established downtrend. Price is currently pressing against the lower Bollinger Band (~$184.5), often indicative of an oversold condition. However, continued trading at or below the lower band signals strong bearish momentum. Historically, sharp moves following band expansion (like the May downswing) suggest the current expansion could sustain further downside pressure before stabilization or reversal.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis validates the bearish narrative. The most significant down days (June 20th: -3.41%, June 11th: -5.42%, May 2nd: -8.99%) featured substantially above-average trading volumes, highlighting strong conviction behind selling. Conversely, many attempted rallies have occurred on lighter or average volume (e.g., June 16th: +1.78%). This consistent pattern of higher volume on down days versus up days confirms distribution and undermines confidence in recovery attempts until a clear shift towards higher volume on advances occurs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Using the provided formula (RSI = [Average Gain / (Average Gain + Average Loss)] x 100 calculated over 14 days), the current RSI resides near 35. While below the midpoint of 50 (confirming bearish momentum), it is not yet within the traditional oversold threshold (<30). This indicates room for further downside before the market is considered deeply oversold from this perspective. Prior instances where the RSI dipped below 30 (e.g., early April, late August 2024) did precede short-term bounces, but these occurred within larger downtrends. The current lack of deep oversold RSI reinforces caution despite the recent sharp decline.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major swing high established on February 18th ($315.44) and the subsequent swing low on May 2nd ($179-181 zone, using $180 for calculation) yields key levels. The 38.2% retracement level sits at $232, the 50% level at $248, and the 61.8% level at $264. The price failed near the 50% retracement ($248) in early June, confirming its resistance significance. The 23.6% retracement (~$208) was recently broken, turning it into resistance. Current support lies near the swing low ($180). The recent rejection near the 50% level and subsequent breakdown below the 23.6% level reinforce the downtrend. Key confluence exists near $180, combining the major swing low and 0% Fibonacci level.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Significant confluence supports the bearish stance: Prices lie beneath key MAs (Bearish Stack + Death Cross), confirmed by volume on down days, bearish MACD, KDJ trending down, and recent resistance at the Fib 50% level. The RSI's lack of deep oversold territory (~35) offers little immediate contrarian signal against the trend. A critical zone of multi-indicator support now resides near $179-$181 (prior major swing low & Fib 0% level). Divergence requiring monitoring would be a potential positive MACD crossover while price makes lower lows, or RSI forming a higher low while price drops significantly below $180, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. Absent such signals or a decisive breakout above the 50-day EMA ($201-202), the technical outlook favors further downside potential for Atlassian.